6 Fantasy Football Splits That Matter for Week 10

An Unlikely Hero Could Emerge Without Ezekiel Elliott

Ezekiel Elliott was in the midst of another standout season prior to his six-game suspension (finally) beginning, currently tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns (7) and ranked second-overall among running backs in Rushing NEP. Where he saw a true uptick in volume, though, was in the passing game.

According to PFF, Elliott has ran an average of 26.7 routes in eight games this season. Last season he merely averaged 17.6 routes run over the course of 15 games. Taking on that additional role has cut into Cole Beasley's production as he's currently on pace for 74 targets following a season in which he amassed a career-high (98).

Elliott's absence opens up 77.6% of carries and 10.1% of targets that the Dallas Cowboys need fill over the next six weeks. Though some combination of Alfred Morris, Rod Smith, and Darren McFadden will shore up whatever rushes Elliott vacates, there's clear potential for Beasley's output to regress towards the mean. He averaged 5.5 more fantasy points (in points per reception leagues) in 2016 (on 56.5% of offensive snaps) despite receiving a similar snap rate so far this year (56.3%).

Note that the Atlanta Falcons quietly rank 22nd-overall in Adjusted Defense Passing NEP. With this game slated as the highest total (by 4 points nonetheless) of the week, it would not be shocking to see both Dez Bryant and Beasley flourish.