Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 11

Start the Lions' Defense Because of Line Movement

What is line movement? During the NFL season, bookmakers usually post a spread with a total as early as possible to begin taking bets. For Week 11, these lines were posted as early as Sunday night and have since been adjusted. They are adjusted in the following hours and days due to transactions, injuries, weather reports, large bets on one side -- any number of things.

The Detroit Lions are 3.0-point road favorites against the Chicago Bears. The Lions opened as 3.0-point favorites and have remained there throughout the week. However, the total in this game has dropped.

The game opened at a lower total of 44.0 points but has plunged three points to 40.5. The Bears have an implied total of just 18.75 points.

Last year, I wrote about how line movement affects defensive performances, and when the total fell two points or more in 2015, the defenses involved averaged 8.30 fantasy points per game. Also, when the total was 39-42 points, the average D/ST score was 8.06 fantasy points per game.

The Detroit D/ST is priced at $4,800 on FanDuel and ranks fourth among defenses. The Lions are worth starting in all formats.