3 NFL Storylines to Watch in Week 11
Vikings Sound The Horn
What happens when two teams that rank as top-five passing offenses -- based on our schedule-adjusted metrics -- square off against each other? Well, that's exactly what we are about to find out when the Minnesota Vikings host the Los Angeles Rams in a showdown between two unexpected division-leading 7-2 teams.
The Vikings began last season 5-0, only to go 3-8 over the final 11 games. Playing behind a ravaged offensive line, a conservative Sam Bradford set the NFL single-season record for completion percentage (71.6 percent). Following a 2017 Week 1 explosion of 346 passing yards and 3 touchdowns, Bradford suffered what proved to be another season-ending knee injury. That event turned the reins over to Case Keenum, who has played well but is also attempting to stave off a now-healthy Teddy Bridgewater.
In Net Expected Points gained from passing the ball, Keenum ranks eighth this year. He's also been successful getting the ball to his receivers down the field. According to data from PlayerProfiler, among 25 quarterbacks with more than 30 deep-ball attempts -- passes traveling at least 20 yards in the air -- only Keenum, Alex Smith, and Drew Brees own a completion rate of 50 percent or better.
And it sure doesn't hurt that Keenum is throwing to the best wide receiver tandem in the league: Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Thielen is fourth in Reception NEP while Diggs owns a league-best 1.05 Reception NEP per target among wide receivers with more than 30 targets.
#Vikings WR Stefon Diggs gets a 51-yard catch against #Redskins Josh Norman pic.twitter.com/DAyHJJekq1
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) November 12, 2017
Diggs could prove to be the key to victory against the Rams, assuming one of the league's top route runners can shake off the beatable shadow coverage of cornerback Trumaine Johnson, who has given up the seventh-most yards in coverage this season, according to Pro Football Focus.
Keenum and company will have their work cut out for them, however, as the Rams are third against the pass, per our metrics. As of Thursday evening, the Vikings were a very slight home favorite, according to the spread, and they owned the sixth-highest implied team total.
