Week 12 Fantasy Football Market Share Report: Anticipating Derrick Henry

Receiving Market Shares

1. Devin Funchess Could Be a Target Monster

Once Kelvin Benjamin got dealt, you knew the Panthers would be feeding Devin Funchess simply because they had no other options. But that usage had an expiration date on it with Greg Olsen set to return in Week 12. That return didn't last long.

It's possible that Olsen's able to get right back out there in Week 13, but even that may not stop Funchess from being a complete target hog in the offense.

We've got three week's of data on Funchess since Benjamin's departure. Here's Funchess' target distribution profile in those games with a "deep" target being classified as any throw that travels at least 16 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

Not only is Funchess just getting tons of targets, but a good chunk of them are high-leverage looks. That's what you need to find a player with a sweet floor-upside combo.

Even if Olsen is able to suit up going forward, Funchess could still continue to bask in volume. Olsen was able to play for most of the first half (he had a deep target on the team's final drive of the second quarter), but Funchess still had 9 of the team's 18 targets in that span. Keep an eye on the Saints' secondary this week because if they're not able to get Marshon Lattimore back from injury, Funchess could have a big day.

2. The Rams' Target Tree Narrows Without Robert Woods

Speaking of Lattimore, his absence was surely felt on Sunday as Jared Goff and the Rams picked apart the Saints' defense. Normally, the Rams' targets are spread a bit too thin for our liking, but in their first game without Robert Woods, Goff just kept pumping targets to Cooper Kupp and Sammy Watkins.

Both Kupp and Watkins set season highs in targets with Kupp at 11 and Watkins at nine. For Kupp, four of those targets were deep, and one was in the red zone. Watkins had two deep targets and two red-zone targets. And both guys were able to produce on that volume.

If Woods were to return in Week 13, all of this would be moot. But head coach Sean McVay said last week that Woods would be out a "couple of weeks," meaning this concentrated usage may be around for a bit. Giddy up.

This upcoming game is a bit of a different animal because the Rams will be facing Patrick Peterson and the Arizona Cardinals. Peterson is likely to tango with Watkins, significantly capping his expectation for the day. That should allow Kupp to feast in the slot, and it means we could throw a dart at Josh Reynolds, who had two deep targets and two red-zone targets of his own on Sunday. But with Kupp at $6,300 on FanDuel, he's a tremendous asset.

Once Woods comes back, we can expect things to be spread a bit thin again, making this group of pass catchers hard to predict. But for now, it seems like Watkins and Kupp are guys we can trust whenever they're not facing a lock-down corner.

3. Jamison Crowder Presents Cause for Joy, Concern

Depending on what stat you prefer, Jamison Crowder is either an angel sent to deliver you to fantasy heaven or a temptress devil trying to lure you into the gutter. Let's start with the more positive side of that equation.

In the past four games that he has played, Crowder has had at least eight targets each time, accounting for 29.4% of the team's targets. He has had six deep targets and four red-zone targets in that time, all of which can get your insides tingly.

What could possibly be bad about that, you ask? This increase in production just happens to coincide with a severe decline in his snap rate. And it has to make you wonder whether he can keep this all up.

Back in Week 8 -- the first game in this stretch -- Crowder played a season-high 94.9% of the snaps. That dipped to 80.0% in Week 10, which is still acceptable, especially as he was working his way back from an injury that held him out the previous game.

Then it fell to 59.4% in Week 11. It was just 52.1% on Thursday night, his lowest mark of the year. Goodbye, happiness.

What blows this up even more is that Crowder wasn't just missing running plays. He was on the field for 26 of 40 passing snaps in Week 12, according to Pro Football Focus. That means that when we narrow the scope to just plays on which Washington threw the football, Crowder's snap rate was 65.0%. Can we panic now?

Crowder has been dealing with dings and dents all year, and with that game being on short rest, it's possible they were just trying to get him healthy. For that reason, we shouldn't write him off just yet. But it does mean that we need to keep a close eye on his snap rate in the coming weeks.

Washington will play on normal rest in Week 13 against the Cowboys. If Crowder comes out and plays for most of the team's passing snaps, then we'll be able to go back to trusting him as a guy who gets a good number of targets in a solid offense. But if the snap rate on passes stays low, then we'll need to pump the brakes and consider looking elsewhere within the offense.