Week 13 Fantasy Football Market Share Report: Josh Gordon Is Back
Red-Zone Market Shares
1. Todd Gurley Has Touchdown Regression Coming
Over the past four games, Todd Gurley has scored just one touchdown. He is still yet to score fewer than 13.1 FanDuel points in that time, and he's averaging 15.8 per game. This dude doesn't need touchdowns to be a great fantasy asset. But when they do start to come again, you're going to want him on your rosters.
Gurley has been a usage monster pretty much the entire season, rocking a 39.5% total market share in the offense, second in the league behind Le'Veon Bell. And given how effective Gurley's offense has been, there's a ton of value in that. The touchdown love just hasn't happened to spread his way recently.
That said, the touchdowns will come. Gurley had five carries inside the 20-yard line in Week 13, two of which were inside the 10 with one more inside the five. He has 42.9% of their red-zone opportunities for the season, again second in the league behind Bell. This team generates plenty of trips to the red zone, so he will score, and he could wind up scoring in bunches. When you add that to what he's doing beyond the touchdowns now, he looks like one of the best fantasy assets in the game.
Given Gurley's involvement in the passing game, he seems a bit underpriced at $8,500 in Week 14. It's a tough matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles, but given all that he does and the potential touchdown regression coming his way, Gurley is still absolutely worth a look despite the opponent.
2. Revisiting Rex Burkhead vs. Dion Lewis
Last week, we chatted about how the Patriots were deploying Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis in the red zone. It seemed like Burkhead's two-touchdown game in Week 12 could have been a bit fluky as Lewis, too, had been involved once the team was inside the 20.
Then Burkhead went out and did it again. We've got to revisit that discussion now.
We've essentially had two weeks with Burkhead and Lewis in their current roles. Here's a breakdown of where the two have gotten their chances once the team has gotten to the red zone. For the table, an "opportunity" will be either a carry or a target in that specific area.
| Opportunites Past Two Weeks | Inside 20-Yard Line | Inside 10-Yard Line | Inside 5-Yard Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 8 | 7 | 6 |
Although Lewis is often the guy setting up these short-yardage opportunities, it's Burkhead getting the chances to cash in. And that matters on an offense as good as the Patriots'.
We would be having a different discussion here if Burkhead were getting exclusively goal-line opps, but his role is much more robust than that. He has 25 carries and 6 targets the past two weeks, and he had 103 yards from scrimmage in Week 13. Even if he doesn't score, he's not a guy who's necessarily going to sink an entire lineup. There's so much to like in what he has to offer, and it means we should view him as being the better asset than Lewis right now.
That's not to say Lewis is completely off the radar. He has been electric as a rusher, racking up 204 yards on the ground on 30 carries the past two games. He has also shown enough burst to break off a long touchdown, so he may not always need goal-line looks to score. He's definitely a riskier bet than Burkhead, but when the script is right, we can still absolutely give Lewis a sniff.
