Week 15 Fantasy Football Market Share Report: Greg Olsen Lives Again
Red-Zone Market Shares
1. Robert Woods Returns to a Full Workload
Before he got hurt, Robert Woods was looking like a true top-end wide receiver for fantasy. He had eclipsed 70 yards in three straight games while scoring four touchdowns in that span. Dude was cooking.
On Sunday, he picked up right where he left off.
This may have flown a bit under the radar because the Los Angeles Rams had to throw just 23 times, but Woods easily led the team with 7 targets. Sammy Watkins was the only other guy with more than three. Woods had one of the team's two deep targets and two of six red-zone looks, meaning this volume carried extra weight. We no longer need to worry about that shoulder injury.
We're now up to four games of data on Woods since the Rams' bye. Here are his target distribution numbers in those four games.
| Past 4 Games | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | Red-Zone Targets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 28.0% | 41.2% | 27.8% |
Those are the numbers of a guy who should be priced much higher than $6,600 for Week 16. And yet, here we are.
This Rams' offense is plowing down solid opponents and scoring at will. We want to get access to offenses of that nature. Clearly, the most logical outlet is Todd Gurley, but he's priced as such. In Woods, you get low-cost exposure to a tremendous offense that finds itself in a plus matchup with the Tennessee Titans this weekend. Take advantage while you can.
2. Nelson Agholor Remains Relevant With Nick Foles
At first, it looked like Nelson Agholor had some seriously horrendous timing. He had started to ascend in the Eagles' pecking order right before Carson Wentz suffered a season-ending injury, seemingly bringing Agholor's breakout to a screeching halt.
You just can't kill Swagholor that easily.
In the first full game with Foles, Agholor finished tied for second on the team with nine targets. He had just one deep target compared to four for Alshon Jeffery, but it was Agholor who continued a trend of getting looks near the end zone.
Since the Eagles' Week 10 bye, they have had 34 targeted throws in the red zone; 11 of those have gone to Agholor, giving him a 32.4% red-zone market share in this span. Four of those targets came in Week 14, and three were on Sunday. He now has three touchdowns in the past four games, and it doesn't seem that fluky at all.
If we narrow the scope to the past three games, Agholor has 24.2% of the overall targets and 30.0% of the deep looks to go along with the work near the goal line. Even if that volume is no longer coming from Wentz, there's still plenty of value in that high-leverage usage. He may be able to thrive despite the changeover at the top.
Agholor's not on the main slate in Week 16, and the team's starters may rest in Week 17, so this information may not be actionable right now. But for playoff DFS, we need to be able to identify players with slate-changing upside. Agholor's getting closer to being in that realm, and his price doesn't reflect it yet. He's a name to keep in the back of your mind as those smaller slates approach.
