Fantasy Football: 4 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Wild Card Weekend

Start the Rams' Defense Because of Line Movement

The Jacksonville D/ST is sure to be popular against the Buffalo Bills and rightfully so, but we are going to look at the lower-priced Los Angeles Rams D/ST instead because of line movement.

What is line movement? During the NFL season, bookmakers usually post a spread with a total as early as possible to begin taking bets. For Wild Card Weekend, these lines were posted as early as Sunday night and have since been adjusted. They are adjusted in the hours and days that follow due to transactions, injuries, weather reports, large bets on one side -- any number of things.

The Rams are 6.5-point favorites against the Atlanta Falcons. The Rams opened as 5-point favorites, but that line has risen in their favor past the key number of 6.

Also, the over/under total in this game has dropped. The game opened at a high total of 50.0 points but has dropped 1.5 points to 48.5 at Pinnacle, per Sports Insights. The line could change as we head into the weekend, but this drop in the total looks good for the Rams D/ST.

In 2016, I wrote about how line movement affects defensive performances, and when the total fell two points or more in 2015, the defenses involved averaged 8.3 fantasy points per game.

The Rams have seen 11 of their 16 games eclipse their total, the most in the NFL. This could be attributed to their surprisingly strong play on offense this year. On the other side, the Falcons eclipsed the total in just 5 of their 16 games. We are hoping this lackluster scoring will continue on Saturday night.

The Los Angeles defense is priced at $4,700 on FanDuel, which ranks 3rd among defenses. The Rams may not be safe as a cash game play because Atlanta's offense still has that Julio Jones guy and the reigning MVP in Matt Ryan, but they are worth starting in tournaments in an effort to fade the Jaguars.