5 Super Bowl LII X-Factors for the Eagles and Patriots
Nick Foles' Boom-or-Bust Performances
It's not often that you can call a starting quarterback in the Super Bowl a potential x-factor, but that's what we have with Nick Foles.
If we look solely at the games in which Foles attempted at least 12 passes, he's been, well, pretty phenomenal, according to our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric.
| Nick Foles | C/A | Yards | TD/INT | Pass NEP | Pass NEP/ Drop Back |
Success% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 15 | 24/38 | 237 | 4/0 | 12.13 | 0.31 | 43.6% |
| Week 16 | 19/38 | 163 | 1/1 | -11.04 | -0.28 | 32.5% |
| Divisional | 23/30 | 246 | 0/0 | 11.50 | 0.37 | 64.5% |
| Championship | 26/33 | 352 | 3/0 | 28.29 | 0.83 | 64.7% |
| Total | 92/139 | 998 | 8/1 | 40.88 | 0.28 | 50.0% |
So, 7.18 yards per attempt ain't too shabby, and neither is an 8-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. When you factor in the five sacks in these four games, Foles has added 0.28 expected points per drop back, with a Success Rate of 50.00%.
For context, Tom Brady's regular season numbers were 0.28 and 49.84%, ranking second and sixth, respectively, among 45 passers with at least 100 drop backs.
Now, Foles' opponents in those four games, chronologically, have been the New York Giants (23rd in pass defense by our metrics), Oakland Raiders (31st), Atlanta Falcons (18th), and Minnesota Vikings (2nd). But New England ranked 22nd this year and 26th since Week 15.
Of course, we can't just entirely overlook his Week 16 outing, when he lost 0.28 expected points per drop back. And in his four other appearances, he lost 7.43 expected points on 27 attempts (-0.28 per drop back).
In summation, Good Foles (8.42 yards per attempt and 0.50 Passing NEP per drop back in Week 15 plus the playoffs) could lead the Philadelphia Eagles to their first ever Super Bowl.
Bad Foles (5.48 yards per attempt and -0.28 Passing NEP per drop back) from the other appearances would likely lead to a one-sided game come Sunday.
