Which Quarterback in the 2018 NFL Draft Class Is Statistically Superior?
3. Lamar Jackson, Louisville
Games Played: 36 | Passing Efficiency Rating: 146.6 | AY/A: 8.7 | Total QBR: 85.0
Top Statistical Comp: Eli Manning
If Lamar Jackson needs to move to wide receiver, maybe some of these other dudes do, too. His stats measure up well against those of his peers, and none of them are being asked to change positions.
The way that you view Jackson from a statistical perspective is going to depend on which stats you value. If you want to focus on completion percentage, he's not going to look too hot. He finished with a 59.1% completion percentage in his final season, which was actually the best mark of his career. This is an argument that is used to ding Josh Allen, so why would we not be equally harsh with Jackson?
That's largely because the completion percentages are where the parallels between the two stop. Just check out what their other metrics show, side by side.
| Collegiate Resumes | Games | Pass. Eff. Rating | AY/A | Total QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 36 | 146.6 | 8.7 | 85.0 |
| Josh Allen | 25 | 127.8 | 6.9 | 52.6 |
You can't even blame those numbers on a down year for Allen, either; it was the same story in 2016.
| In 2016 | Pass. Eff. Rating | AY/A | Total QBR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 148.8 | 9.1 | 84.8 |
| Josh Allen | 144.9 | 8.3 | 73.8 |
As a reminder, Total QBR is the only metric that also accounts for Jackson's abilities as a rusher. We're largely just comparing the two as passers, and Jackson wins it by a pretty steady margin.
This isn't an attempt to say that Jackson is some can't-miss prospect as a quarterback. He certainly had flaws, and he does fall short of many of the statistical benchmarks we laid out in the beginning. But at the same time, he has spent more time as a quarterback than everybody in this class outside of Mayfield and Rudolph, and his passing statistics are respectable. Why wouldn't you give him a shot at playing the position?
It seems likely that people will attempt to use Jackson's abilities as a rusher against him when discussing his draft stock. But based on the data, more teams should want guys like him who can make magic with their feet.
At numberFire, we have two different measures of rushing effectiveness: Rushing NEP and Success Rate. Rushing NEP shows the expected points added (or subtracted) on each rush, and Success Rate is the percentage of carries that increase the team's expected points for the drive.
Below is a comparison of the rushing efficiency of running backs to how effective quarterbacks are when they tuck it and run. This includes every rush by a player at either position during the 2017 season.
| Rushing Efficiency | Rushing NEP per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Running Backs | -0.05 | 38.08% |
| Quarterbacks | 0.32 | 58.00% |
For context, the average drop back for these same quarterbacks added 0.06 expected points with a 45.00% Success Rate. Having a rushing quarterback is almost a cheat code for an offense.
You could counter by saying that part of this is due to the element of surprise, something that would not be on Jackson's side. But even Cam Newton had a 56.10% Success Rate, and he led the league with 123 rushes. As long as the quarterback knows how to protect himself, teams really should be encouraging them to run more often. For Jackson, that wouldn't be an issue at all.
Quarterback is easily the most valuable position in football, and it's not even close. If you can find one who could be a decent passer and has insane athleticism to boot, it seems like malpractice to shift him to another position. The numbers say Jackson deserves a shot to play quarterback, so hopefully at least one team is willing to give him that chance.
