Which Quarterback in the 2018 NFL Draft Class Is Statistically Superior?
5. Sam Darnold, USC
Games Played: 24 | Passing Efficiency Rating: 148.1 | AY/A: 8.5 | Total QBR: 74.6
Top Statistical Comp: Jameis Winston
Rosen's cause for hope was Goff; for Sam Darnold, that guy is Jameis Winston, a no-brainer for his top statistical comp.
Both guys burst on the scene as redshirt freshmen, posting impressive statistical profiles in their age-19 seasons. Then both fell off as sophomores, largely due to interceptions. What does this mean for our evaluation of Darnold?
A lot of that depends on how you view Winston. He has certainly had flashes of greatness since entering the league, but he has still finished between 11th and 15th in Total NEP each of his first three seasons. Both Goff and Carson Wentz -- the class after Winston -- were able to log a top-10 finish before Winston.
A big part of that limitation for Winston is that the interceptions are still present in the NFL. He ranks sixth in interception rate since his debut out of 36 quarterbacks with at least 500 attempts. That makes it seem as if we should expect the turnover problem to persist for Darnold.
However, what we have seen from Darnold that we haven't seen from Rosen is at least one high-upside season. That makes the discussion between the two very interesting.
Let's put each player's top campaign up head to head here. For Darnold, this is his 2016 season as a redshirt freshman, and Rosen's will be this most recent season.
| Best Collegiate Seasons | TDs | INTs | Pass. Eff. Rating | AY/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnold in 2016 | 31 | 9 | 161.1 | 9.0 |
| Rosen in 2017 | 26 | 10 | 147.0 | 8.5 |
Darnold's best year is a good chunk better than Rosen's best year, and his efficiency stats are right around our thresholds. But Darnold took a step backward in 2017, and Rosen was facing some difficult circumstances. It makes separating the two superbly difficult, and it may mean there's no wrong answer between the two.
We do, though, need to address the subject of Darnold's experience. There, he's an outlier in the not-so-positive sense.
With just 25 games in which he had at least 10 pass attempts, Darnold is tied for 45th in our sample of 54 studied passers. Among the quarterbacks with fewer than 30 games played, only 28.57% (4 of 14) have managed to log at least one top-10 finish in Total NEP. That's compared to 38.24% of the guys with 30 or more games played. Experience does matter, and we should hold this as a mark against Darnold.
What may help Darnold is that one of the bigger hits in this low-experience range was recent. That's the aforementioned Wentz, who played just 23 games at North Dakota State before entering the draft. Wentz was also significantly older than Darnold, coming off his age-23 season while Darnold just wrapped up his age-20 campaign. If you want to compare any prospect in this class to Wentz, it should likely be Darnold rather than Allen.
| Collegiate Resumes | Games | Pass. Eff. Rating | AY/A |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 23 | 152.3 | 8.7 |
| Sam Darnold | 25 | 148.1 | 8.5 |
| Josh Allen | 25 | 127.8 | 6.9 |
Wentz's stats blow Allen's out of the water, but Darnold is able to hang a bit closer. We shouldn't assume Darnold will turn into a stud because he has mild similarities to one successful NFL quarterback, but drafting a player of this mold has paid off before with both Winston and Wentz.
So, when assessing Darnold and Rosen, your analysis basically comes down to two things: how highly do you value peak seasons, and how much weight do you put on experience? The data says experience is huge, which is why Darnold is lower than Rosen on this list. Both present plenty of statistical red flags, and that makes their selections at the front end of the first round risky, but when choosing between the two, the gap appears to be quite small.
