Dynasty Fantasy Football: 6 Buy-Low Targets for This Offseason
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
ADP: 85th overall, RB30
Aaron Jones is gonna get a lot of love this offseason. It's already started as earlier this week, our Jim Sannes highlighted Jones in a piece that looked at running backs who vastly out-performed their teammates last year by our metrics.
Jones checks a lot of boxes. Not only is he part of one of the game's elite offenses, Jones accounted for elite market share numbers in his final college campaign, and he was an advanced analytics darling in 2017.
Using our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, we can see just how effective Jones was last season. NEP is the metric we use to track the efficiency of teams and players. NEP tells us the expected points added on each play, and it accounts for the difference between a four-yard run on 3rd and 3 and that same run on 3rd and 8. We can also look at each player's Success Rate, which shows the percentage of carries that increase the team's expected points for the drive.
Here are Jones' 2017 numbers alongside his fellow Green Bay Packers running backs.
| Player | Rushes | Rushing NEP per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 80 | 0.19 | 50.00% |
| Jamaal Williams | 153 | 0.05 | 42.28% |
| Ty Montgomery | 71 | 0.00 | 50.70% |
Clearly, Jones was outstanding as a rookie, but there are some caveats here.
A sample size of 80 carries isn't much, and even though Jones out-performed his teammates, Jamaal Williams and Ty Montgomery were pretty good in their own right, especially Williams (who is the RB26 and 78th overall player right now). Also, Jones didn't make much of an impact as a pass-game option, finishing with a mere 9 catches for 22 yards, while both TyMont (23 grabs for 173 yards) and Williams (25 receptions for 262 yards) fared well in that area.
Time will tell how this backfield plays out, but it's definitely a situation to monitor since the team ran it so well in 2017 and that Aaron Rodgers guy is going to be back under center next fall. There's a very real chance Jones doesn't open the year as the lead back, and even if he does, he could be limited to a role as an early-down runner.
With that said, Jones' college track record and rookie-year metrics are enough to get us excited, and if he does land the lead-back gig -- either through his performance or injury to others -- he has massive upside in the Green Bay offense.
