What to Watch For on Day 1 of the NFL Draft

Are Running Backs Really Devalued?

If the running back position has been devalued, someone may have forgotten to tell NFL general managers. While the workloads have never been smaller -- only Le'Veon Bell surpassed 300 carries in 2017 -- and the shelf life has never been shorter, elite talents continue to be taken early in the first round.

Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, and Leonard Fournette were all top-15 picks over the past three drafts, even though positional value would tell you to steer clear with that type of investment.

In 2018, we could see three backs taken in the first round, with Penn State's Saquon Barkley a lock for the top 10. He could be joined on day one by Derrius Guice and Sony Michel, even as the NFL refuses to pay money to running backs on second contracts not named Jerrick McKinnon.

Over the past eight seasons, just five free-agent running backs have been given more than $9 million in guaranteed money. In contrast, five free agent guards were given $10 million or more in 2018 alone.

So what gives? If the NFL seemingly thinks running backs are highly replaceable commodities, why is Barkley being floated as the potential second overall pick?

In short, it's because he's a 99th-percentile SPARQ athlete with outstanding skills as a receiver who also happens to be 233 pounds. He's rare. Yet an argument could still be made that it's simply not worth the investment.

So what will the NFL tell us about how it views the running back position on Day 1? How many first-round rushers will be selected, and which teams will make that investment?