Finding Betting Value in the Odds for the 2018 NFL MVP Award

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, San Francisco 49ers

MVP Odds: +2000 (14th)

When the San Francisco 49ers finally grew weary of watching C.J. Beathard and turned their offense over to Jimmy Garoppolo, good things started to happen for them. They ended the season with a five-game winning streak, giving Garoppolo a 7-0 start to his NFL career.

It is easy to get carried away with Garoppolo's deeds in his first few games as a 49er, because he was, by our numbers, the best quarterback in the NFL during his late-season surge.

His 0.35 Passing NEP per drop back was the best mark among the 40 quarterbacks with at least 150 drop backs. Using other stats, he averaged 8.8 yards per attempt as well as 13.0 yards per completion. Jimmy G was outstanding with the Niners, and he helped a 1-10 team finish 6-10.

If San Fran is a playoff-caliber team in 2018, Garoppolo will likely be in the MVP race, and the odds here are pretty sweet. At +2000, that's an implied probability of 4.8%.

There are a couple caveats here, with the most obvious one being that Jimmy G has started a mere seven games, so we still don't know too much about him as an NFL quarterback. But narratives are powerful in MVP races, and the narrative surrounding Garoppolo is that he's the 49ers savior, a guy who turned a downtrodden franchise -- one that had gone a measly 8-35 in its previous 42 games before he took the starting gig -- into a contender.

If Garoppolo is able to be the tide that raises all boats and fire the team deep into the postseason, then +2000 is going to look like a steal.