Fantasy Football: Which Players Are Being Drafted at a Discount in 2018?
Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, Quarterbacks
2017 ADP: 78th and 79th Overall
2018 ADP: 130th and 128th Overall
Difference: -52 and -49
Quarterbacks are interesting creatures. Like tight ends, once you’re past the elite options, there’s little to differentiate them. Unlike tight ends, quarterbacks that are just “meh” still score a bunch of points and can be somewhat useful for fantasy.
That’s where we’re at with Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota after a pair of inefficient 2017 seasons. Neither player is the seventh- or eighth-round pick they were last year, but both have compelling upside beyond the 12th round this season.
Winston was actually our 12th-best passer by Passing NEP per drop back last season, but he suffered from a regressive offense and playing in just 13 games, which kept his drop backs to just 475. With a full season of playing time, Winston would have earned 248.4 fantasy points -- 14th among quarterbacks -- at last year’s rate.
Mariota’s big issue was a regression in his touchdown-to-interception rate in 2017 (15 to 19) and a stark drop in his rushing yards per attempt (from 6.4 in 2015 to 2016, to 5.2 last year). If Mariota can rebound to even his career-average rates this season, he could get back up to the 260-point range. That would put him in contention to be a top-10 fantasy quarterback in 2018.
