Which NFL Head Coach Will Be the First to Get Fired?

Dirk Koetter, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

First Coach Fired Odds: 7/1

The NFC South is one of the more turbulent divisions in the league, and it's also one of the most competitive. Three NFC South teams made it to the postseason in 2017, with the New Orleans Saints a miracle play away from being in NFC Championship game. The only team in this division to not make the playoffs in the last two seasons is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with Dirk Koetter in charge for both of those campaigns.

The team went 9-7 in Koetter's first season in charge, thanks in large part to play of quarterback Jameis Winston and a solid defense. While they were the 15th-best overall team in terms of nERD in 2016, they had the 10th-best passing offense by our schedule-adjusted metrics and were 13th on D.

The Bucs did not build on this in 2017 -- far from it in fact. They fell to 5-11, finished in last place in the division and were 20th in nERD. It wasn't the offense's fault as they were to 12th by our numbers, led by the 10th-best passing offense. Their defense absolutely cratered, though. Only five teams were less efficient on a per-play basis, per NEP, and no team allowed more yards than the Buccaneers.

Koetter is the fourth head coach of the Buccaneers since the end of Jon Gruden's reign in 2008. He is only the second to make it to a third season. While a poor start to the year would likely bring pressure to bear first on defensive coordinator Mike Smith, assuming the defense isn't playing well, Koetter may need an offense so good that it keeps Chris Godwin on the sidelines to come to his rescue.