10 Players You Should Be Targeting in Fantasy Football Drafts
Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
I hope you didn't change your iPhone's wallpaper, because the holdout is over. Julio Jones has a revised contract.
Thank the fantasy gods.
Jones is currently being selected in the early second round of PPR drafts -- multiple spots below DeAndre Hopkins and Odell Beckham -- and, let's be honest, it's due to touchdowns. Jones scored just 3 times last year, while Hopkins tallied 13. Beckham barely even played in 2017, and he still tied Jones' mark.
Last season was pretty flukey for Jones, though. Yes, I know, he's had "touchdown issues" in the past, but it was nothing like we saw a season ago.
| Year | TD | Should Have TDs | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 3 | 8.66 | 5.66 |
| 2016 | 6 | 8.45 | 2.45 |
| 2015 | 8 | 11.22 | 3.22 |
| 2014 | 6 | 9.55 | 3.55 |
| 2013 | 2 | 3.48 | 1.48 |
| 2012 | 10 | 7.18 | -2.82 |
| 2011 | 8 | 5.75 | -2.25 |
Based on the number of receiving yards per touchdown we've seen over the last seven seasons -- so since 2011 -- at wide receiver, Jones' 1,444 yards should have yielded close to 9 touchdowns last year. Instead, he scored three, marking the second-largest difference between "actual" touchdowns and "should have" touchdowns that we've seen during this span. The largest? Calvin Johnson in 2012, where he scored 5 times on 1,964 yards receiving. For what it's worth, the following year, Megatron had 12 touchdowns in 14 games.
It's not like Jones was used less often close to the end zone or anything. He saw the third-most red zone targets of his career last season, as well as the second-most targets from within the opponent's 10-yard line. Variance just got the best of him.
Jones has now hit the 1,400-yard mark in each of the last four campaigns. Despite missing two contests a couple of years ago, he's also never failed to reach the 24% target share mark over this time.
Hopkins and Beckham are solid bets this year, but with a little positive touchdown regression, Jones should be able to compete with the two of them in fantasy points scored. But his average draft position doesn't reflect that.
