5 Quarterbacks With Major Touchdown Upside for 2018

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

In Andrew Luck, we get the best of both worlds in terms of rushing and passing touchdown potential.

Since coming into the league in 2012, he has ranked no worse than 12th among quarterbacks in red-zone rush attempts. His low mark came in his seven-game 2015 campaign, though, and if we look just at his four healthy seasons, he ranked 10th twice and 4th twice, scoring no fewer than two red-zone rushing touchdowns in any of the four seasons (and averaging 3.5).

He has also ranked top-12 in red-zone pass attempts three times in his five seasons, finishing top-7 in red-zone passing touchdowns in his last two healthy years.

If we extrapolate his injury-shortened 2015 to 16 games, that would have given him at least 31 total passing touchdowns in each of the last three years, with an average of 35 per season in that stretch. In 2017, 35 would also have been a league-high mark.

Admittedly, there is still plenty of room for concern. Even with Luck back, 5Dimes gives the Colts the league's seventh-lowest over/under for points for (though the over is a big -145 favorite, suggesting they may be better positioned than a couple of offenses with lines above them but less favorable odds on the over), and his injured shoulder is obviously a threat to hold back his scoring if it forces him to miss time.

Luck is already expected to suit up for the Colts' preseason opener, though, and the risk involved with his health is not nearly as big as it was earlier in the offseason.

His versatility and consistent reign as one of the league's most effective touchdown-scoring quarterbacks over his last few seasons means that even though he may be riskier than he seemed in his last few healthy seasons, his upside remains elite.