10 Players You Should Be Avoiding in Fantasy Football Drafts

Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans

You're probably not shocked to see Deshaun Watson on this list. Most numbers-driven analysts are down on him this year after he torched the league as a rookie, and it has everything to do with regression.

Last year, Watson threw a touchdown on 9.31% of his attempts. Perspective: only two quarterbacks have done that in NFL history on 200 or more passes.

Last year, Watson converted 13 of his 27 red zone attempts into touchdowns. Perspective: that was the highest rate we've seen over the last seven NFL seasons among relevant (200-plus attempt) quarterbacks.

Over 38% of his yards came from deep balls, second-most in the league. Almost 26% of his passes were deep balls, which was the most in the league. Only 1% of his passes were dropped last season, which was the lowest rate at quarterback, per Mike Clay.

There are numbers after numbers after numbers pointing towards regression for Deshaun Watson.

And, look, it's not that I don't recognize his ceiling. I absolutely do -- to me, because of that ceiling, he's still a top-five fantasy quarterback.

But with the position being as deep as it is, and with his price hovering the fourth round in a lot of drafts, you can pass on him this season.