10 Players You Should Be Avoiding in Fantasy Football Drafts
Marlon Mack, RB, Indianapolis Colts
We saw 72 running backs hit the 50-carry mark last season. Of those players, only Mike Davis saw a higher percentage of his carries go for zero or fewer yards than Marlon Mack did.
This isn't to say Mack can't or won't improve -- he was a rookie who battled a shoulder injury, and the Colts offense wasn't easy to play in. But even within the context of his own offense, he wasn't the best running back on his team last year. (You can read more about Net Expected Points, or NEP, in our glossary.)
| Player | Attempts | Rushing NEP per Rush | Success Rate | < 0 Yards Rate | < 2 Yards Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 93 | -0.07 | 34.41% | 32.26% | 51.61% |
| Frank Gore | 261 | -0.05 | 37.16% | 16.48% | 41.00% |
Maybe we shouldn't full-on panic, but being outplayed by a 34-year-old Frank Gore isn't exactly encouraging.
Gore's gone, but the Colts selected two running backs in Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins who have a chance to grab volume from Mack in 2018. No, Indy didn't spend a lot of draft capital on Hines and Wilkins -- they were fourth- and fifth-rounders -- but let's not pretend they made a huge investment in Mack, who was drafted in the fourth round with a compensatory pick last year.
It was reported earlier this month that the Indianapolis rushing leader could vary from game to game, hinting at a committee. Assuming that's the case -- or even assuming that's somewhat the case -- selecting Mack at his average cost isn't all that logical. Of course he could end up grabbing hold of the job there, but evidence is suggesting otherwise.
