5 Running Backs With Major Touchdown Upside for 2018

Jay Ajayi, Philadelphia Eagles

My love for Jay Ajayi this season is already well-publicized, and part of that is because of the touchdown upside he offers in the high-powered Philadelphia Eagles' offense.

5Dimes Sportsbook give the Eagles the third-highest over/under for points for this season (406.5), and in an unsurprising turn of events, teams that score a lot tend to run a lot of plays in the red zone:

That's especially important information when we consider the fact that 318 (84%) of the 379 rushing touchdowns scored in the 2017 regular season came from the red zone. That not only gives a player a ton of upside if they end up handling a big percentage of the team's red zone work, it also means that if a player is in a high-scoring offense, they don't need as big a market share to have the potential for big touchdown numbers.

From Weeks 9 to 16 last year (the regular season after they acquired Ajayi but not including Week 17, when they rested starters), Ajayi handled only 8 of the Eagles' red zone carries and 3 of their targets, accounting for a 20% rushing and 7% receiving market share.

This included the presence of LeGarrette Blount, though, who is no longer in town. Blount saw a team-high 15 red zone carries (37% market share), and if we narrow our view to running back carries inside the 10-yard line, Blount and Ajayi combined for a similar 50% market share.

The Eagles didn't bring in anyone to replace Blount, and Corey Clement functioned more as a third-down back last year (17.9% of his opportunities came on third down in this sample, compared to 9.7% from Ajayi), so Ajayi could take on much of Blount's workload.

Being the primary red zone back for one of the league's best offenses generates huge touchdown upside no matter who the back is, and Ajayi stands to feast this year.