4 Tight Ends With Major Touchdown Upside for 2018

Jared Cook, Oakland Raiders

On first glance, Jared Cook may not look like he belongs on this list.

He saw only nine red zone targets in 2017. He has scored five touchdowns only once in his nine NFL seasons (never more than five). He has more seasons with two or fewer touchdowns (five) than years with at least three scores (four). And the Oakland Raiders' 89 red zone plays run last year were 11 fewer than any other team. A gap almost as big as the difference between the second- and seventh-lowest marks. There were even three teams with more red zone pass plays than the Raiders' total red zone plays.

But that ridiculously low red zone volume in Oakland is part of why Cook actually has some sneaky scoring upside for 2018.

As I've referenced often throughout this series, there's a pretty strong correlation between red zone snaps and points scored.

Oakland ranked 22nd in points for in 2017, which means it's a surprise that they ran the fewest red zone snaps, even before we take into account that huge margin.

It's too simplistic a calculation to make a real projection out of, but looking at Oakland's 301 points for last year, we would have expected them to run about 20 more red zone plays than they did -- a difference of slightly more than 20%.

Cook's low red zone volume last year was largely a product of that below-expectation red zone snap number. His 17.7% share of the Raiders' targets inside the 20 wasn't a huge mark, but it did stack up fairly well among tight ends, ranking 16th, while also sitting within one percentage point of ranking as high as 13th.

The Raiders' offense is implied to finish 21st in points for by 5Dimes Sportsbook's betting lines, while numberFire's own power rankings have them coming in at 18th offensively.

With a similar offensive outlook to last year, Oakland stands to see a bump in red zone volume, which should translate to a nice boost in end zone looks for Cook.