Fantasy Football: One Wide Receiver to Target in Each Round of Your Draft

Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints

ADP: 2.03 (WR5)

After a WR7 finish as a rookie in 2016, Thomas backed it up with a WR6 campaign a year ago.

Thomas put up big numbers despite Drew Brees throwing for 874 fewer yards in 2017 than he did in 2016. In fact, Brees' 270.9 passing yards per game were his fewest since 2005, and Brees' 23 touchdowns were his fewest ever in a season in which he played at least 12 games.

Don't read that and think Brees is declining. He's not. His efficiency was still through the roof last year as his 8.1 yards per attempt led the league. The New Orleans Saints just became a different team last season, relying more on the run and their defense to win games, as opposed to needing Brees to chuck it for 300 yards every week to get victories. Simply put: Brees' volume-based stats took a hit.

The takeaway should be that Thomas put together a WR6 season even with Brees' volume taking a nosedive, and there's a lot of reason to think that Brees and the Saints' aerial attack are due for some positive regression.

At an elementary level, Brees' 4.3% touchdown rate, his lowest since 2007, should rebound closer to his 5.3% career average, something that could help Thomas, who scored just 5 times last season. On top of that, New Orleans should have to pass more in 2018 as they are unlikely to lead on such a large percentage of their snaps again this year.

That's key because, even though Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram feasted on the ground last season, the Saints still passed at the ninth-highest rate in one-possession games, per Sharp Football Stats. More closer games this year should mean more passing attempts.

Thomas has proven he has a very high floor, and the expected positive regression for the Saints' passing game gives him mouth-watering upside in his third season.