Fantasy Football: 9 Sleeper Wide Receivers to Target in 2018
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
If opportunity is king in fantasy football, then touchdowns are the throne they sit on. While we always want to chase volume in drafts, it's a fruitless search if that volume isn't coming with scoring opportunities.
With touchdowns being so valuable, it's no surprise that noted fantasy studs Jimmy Graham, Keenan Allen, Davante Adams and Jarvis Landry ranked top-five in red zone targets last year. The other member of the top-five? Rookie Cooper Kupp.
Kupp, who Jason La Canfora of CBS reports has "something special going on" with Jared Goff, led the 2017 Los Angeles Rams in targets inside the 20-yard line (23) as well as inside the 10 (8). He also led the team in targets (94), receiving yards (869) and yards per catch (14.0).
His 29% red zone target market share ranked ninth in the league. This is good news because red zone market share has a year-to-year correlation r value of .34, per TJ Hernandez of 4for4.com. While this isn't the stickiest year-over-year wide receiver statistic, .34 still checks out as a moderately strong correlation.
Sammy Watkins was second on the team with 10 red zone targets (40% of which came when Robert Woods was out of the lineup), and Brandin Cooks, Watkins' replacement, doesn't profile as a red zone threat at 5'10" and 185 pounds. Cooks has averaged just 10 red zone targets per year across a large four-season sample and has never seen more than 12 in a season. These are strong indications that Kupp is primed to again to be first in line for red zone looks in an offense that finished second in points per game in 2017.
As a rookie, Kupp finished as the PPR WR25 in 2017. His current PPR ADP is WR38, per Fantasy Football Calculator. His chemistry with Goff and the predictive nature of red zone market share suggest Kupp could again lead the team in targets where it counts the most. He is an extreme value in the eighth round of drafts and a great target for those buying into the early-round running back hype. - Eli Weiner
