Fantasy Football: 5 Undervalued Running Backs to Target
Duke Johnson, Cleveland Browns
ADP: 8.06 (RB39)
Duke Johnson was a productive fantasy back last season. People forget that.
Johnson produced at least 14 PPR points in nine different games last season, a top-nine number among running backs. Of those backs, only Mark Ingram (5.04) is going outside the third round, and Ingram is suspended for four games.
Of course, Johnson's Cleveland Browns did draft Nick Chubb in the second round of the 2018 NFL draft, and brought over Carlos Hyde in free agency, but Johnson's skill set doesn't really clash with most running backs'.
Johnson ran 333 routes last year, according to ProFootballFocus, sixth-most at the position. His 2.05 yards per route run ranked fourth among running backs with at least 50 targets.
Plus, Johnson is an efficient rusher. Of his 82 carries, 41 increased expected scoring last season, according to numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, good for a 50.00% Rushing Success Rate. Teammate Isaiah Crowell handled all but five of the other running back carries, and just 34.63% of his carries increased expected scoring.
On a per-rush basis, Johnson added 0.12 expected points, compared to the league-average of -0.02. Crowell, by comparison, lost 0.05 expected points per carry.
Whether it's on his handful of carries or out of the backfield, Johnson has produced and should do so again in what could be his most efficient offense ever.
