7 FanDuel NFL Value Plays for Week 1

Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

Price: $6,800

In 2017, the Indianapolis Colts' secondary was a unit you really wanted to go after in fantasy. They allowed top-10 fantasy production to opposing quarterbacks, were tied for the second-most yards per play allowed, and gave up the NFL's third-most points. Their advanced metrics weren't pretty either, ranking dead-last in numberFire's Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play metric.

A lot can change in an off-season, though. Teams can make big improvements, and go from a team to target to one to avoid.

Teams can, but the Colts have not. Our Power Rankings have them projected to be dead-last in pass defense for 2018.

Andy Dalton is no killer, but he's more than capable of doing damage with the right matchup. He eclipsed 18 fantasy points on six occasions in 2017, one of which was a Week 8 matchup with the Colts.

That success came despite 2017 being one of the least efficient seasons of Dalton's career. He posted 5.65 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A), which matched his career-worst mark from his 2011 rookie campaign. His career average sits at 6.19, and 2015 and 2016 saw him post clips of 8.17 and 6.53. That leaves some room to believe that his drop in efficiency had as much to do with variance as anything else.

Even if we don't see a bounce back on the efficiency front, this matchup should be more than enough to make him a solid value. If we do see him trend upward in that area, though, then he could give us some particularly gaudy returns at this price-point.