NFL

2018 NFL Power Rankings: Pre-Week 1 Edition

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Teams Ranked 12th to 1st


RankTeamnERDProjected RecordPlayoff OddsSuper Bowl OddsOff. NEP RankDef. NEP Rank
12Atlanta Falcons1.718.1-7.934.6%2.2%1020
11Seattle Seahawks1.928.2-7.838.1%3.2%1511
10Carolina Panthers2.318.4-7.640.2%3.4%197
9Green Bay Packers2.698.5-7.542.5%2.9%329
8Los Angeles Chargers4.459.4-6.665.9%6.9%79
7Jacksonville Jaguars4.759.3-6.764.1%6.6%143
6Los Angeles Rams4.938.8-7.250.5%4.7%510
5Pittsburgh Steelers5.049.4-6.667.6%7.3%417
4New England Patriots5.9910.0-6.077.8%9.8%213
3New Orleans Saints6.459.4-6.662.9%7.4%112
2Minnesota Vikings6.689.5-6.563.2%8.1%81
1Philadelphia Eagles7.510.0-6.070.7%10.0%62


The Chargers are the highest ranked team that did not make the 2017 playoffs, but Los Angeles was certainly playoff caliber last season.

Only four teams bested their +7.4 nERD rating, and they also had the ninth-best point differential and fifth-best yards per play differential (+0.6). As has been the case in recent years, this strong performance was undone by failings in close games and on special teams.

Los Angeles went 3-5 in one-score games last year and was 31st in Special Teams NEP. These have been sore spots for the franchise recently, but we should still put more stock into a team’s offensive and defensive performance when trying to project future success.

The most important elements of offense and defense are the ability to pass and stop the pass, respectively. The Chargers look like a team that will again be strong in both areas.

As for that offense, quarterback Philip Rivers will turn 37 before the end of the season, but was also one of the best passers in the league last year. Only Tom Brady averaged more Passing NEP per drop back and Rivers was also seventh in success rate (the percentage of plays that yield positive NEP).

He’ll be playing in front of a defense that tied for the third fewest net yards per pass allowed in 2017 and is projected by numberFire to rank fifth against the pass.

Each season, there always seems to be a team that makes a splash after missing the playoffs the previous season. The Chargers look like a good bet to be that team this year.