5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 1
Cleveland Browns' Rushing Offense
A situation can't change more drastically than what we saw with the Cleveland Browns this offseason. They went from a struggling DeShone Kizer at quarterback to the steady, proven right arm of Tyrod Taylor. That's going to boost any offense quite a bit, and it's before we even mention Jarvis Landry and a full year of Josh Gordon.
That's clearly a big plus for the passing game. But improved quarterback play can also boost the team's running backs by generating more touchdown drives and getting teams the lead more often. Enter another new face in the system, Carlos Hyde.
Hyde's situation entering the preseason was pretty shaky because Duke Johnson was a holdover and they drafted Nick Chubb at the top of the second round. But questions around Hyde's usage were answered pretty firmly in the third preseason game.
Browns 1st half HB snap count in 3rd and medium/3rd and long/2 minute drill:
Duke Johnson 14, Carlos Hyde 1, Nick Chubb 0
Browns 1st half HB snap count in the other situations:
Carlos Hyde 19, Duke Johnson 5, Nick Chubb 1
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) August 24, 2018
Hyde is not going to be a bellcow, and he could potentially disappear if the Browns were to fall behind. That takes him off the board in cash games. But we can accept those risks in tournaments.
First, it's not a given that the Browns lose this game. After opening as 5.5-point favorites, according to Sports Insights, the Pittsburgh Steelers' spread is now down to -4 on Betfair. The Le'Veon Bell news likely has something to do with that.
Second, Taylor is a good enough quarterback -- with good enough pieces around him -- to keep this game close. Even if the Browns don't win, they may be able to keep running the ball into the fourth quarter.
Third, the weather for this game looks a bit sloppy. As of Thursday afternoon, the forecast called for some rain with wind speeds at 15 miles per hour. That's no monsoon, but it would at least contribute to slowing down the Steelers' stout passing attack.
Basically, we've got reason to believe this could be a close game, allowing Hyde to get his volume on the ground. That could allow him to exploit what looks like a rough run defense.
For the full season, the Steelers ranked 26th against the rush, according to numberFire's metrics, which is pretty poor to start with. But that's also viewing them a bit too favorably with Ryan Shazier out for the season.
Clearly, Shazier's long-term health is infinitely more important than football. This is all secondary. The Steelers will absolutely miss his presence, though.
Shazier's injury occurred just three snaps into their Week 13 contest last year, giving us effectively 11 games with Shazier and 6 games (counting the playoffs) without him. Here's the breakdown of how the Steelers' defense performed in those splits.
| In 2017 | RB Carries Against | Yards Per Carry | Success Rate | Rushing NEP per Carry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| With Ryan Shazier | 231 | 4.19 | 37.66% | -0.07 |
| Without Ryan Shazier | 140 | 4.82 | 50.00% | 0.20 |
With Shazier, the Steelers were roughly a league-average unit. Without him, they were among the worst in the league.
Rushing efficiency will always be a secondary concern after volume and touchdown upside. But Hyde should be the team's goal-line back, and the Browns could absolutely keep this thing close to get him the volume. There's sneakily quite a bit to like here.
Hyde is just $5,900 this week, meaning he'll cost you just $900 more than the ever-popular James Conner on the other sideline. You'll have enough value elsewhere to make up the gap in pricing. So why not just roll the dice and use Hyde instead?
Again, this is exclusively for tournaments as Hyde could flop if the Steelers get a lead early. In tournaments, though, we want to focus just on the upside. Hyde has got quite a bit of that given the matchup and the improvements the Browns have made since their 0-16 campaign.
