5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 1
Minnesota Vikings' Passing Offense
A change to a team's quarterback is just a wee bit easier to notice than a change in the secondary. You're not going to find the public sleeping here. But a matchup with the San Francisco 49ers is a mighty fine welcoming gift for Kirk Cousins.
The 49ers' defense struggled pretty mightily last year, finishing 27th in schedule-adjusted pass defense. They made changes over the offseason, but they don't appear to be ones that should scare us out of the Minnesota Vikings.
The big addition was free agent cornerback Richard Sherman. Sherman is listed as a starter on the opening depth chart, meaning he should see plenty of playing time.
A few years ago, that would be awesome. Sherman was a legit shutdown option for half a decade with the Seattle Seahawks. But he's now on the wrong side of 30 and coming off of a torn right Achilles in November. He also had his left Achilles "cleaned up" over the winter.
If Sherman were a depth piece or a luxury, this wouldn't be a huge issue. Instead, he's expected to start against an offense that has the potential to be one of the league's best this year. His health is going to be tested in a hurry.
Going back to Cousins, he joins a Vikings team that finished fifth in Adjusted Passing NEP per play last year, mostly with Case Keenum at quarterback. That's what can happen when you get to throw to guys like Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen.
A rash of offensive-line injuries dragged Cousins down last year, but he has been an efficient quarterback outside of that for a while now. Cousins was 6th in Passing NEP per drop back (which accounts for expected points lost due to both sacks and interceptions) in 2016 out of 34 quarterbacks with at least 200 drop backs and 7th in 2015. In that span, his most-targeted wide receiver was Pierre Garcon. Garcon was pretty slick back then, but he's not Diggs or Thielen.
This is the best surrounding talent Cousins has had in his career, he now moves to play his home games indoors, and he starts things off in a plus matchup for Week 1. At $7,600, that's a lot to like.
It's worth noting that the Vikings will be without a few pieces up front for this game, and that will matter with DeForest Buckner lurking on the other side of the ball. Left guard Nick Easton is done for the year due to a neck injury, and center Pat Elflein is likely to miss this week after offseason surgery. We should lower our expectations for this offense as a result. But the biggest loser there will likely be the team's rushing efficiency, as Dalvin Cook could have a hard time finding holes. Cousins and company have enough working in their favor to still be viable.
As for whether you should prefer Diggs or Thielen this week, you truly can't go wrong. But that seems like a cop out, so let's try to figure out who holds the edge.
Diggs and Thielen (and Cook) were all healthy for the first four games last year. Then Cook tore his ACL, and Diggs injured his groin in Week 5. This means our most relevant sample of games from last year will be those first four.
In those four games, here's the distribution of targets for Diggs and Thielen along with another potential stacking candidate in Kyle Rudolph. A "deep" target is classified as any pass that travels more than 15 yards downfield.
| First 4 Weeks | Overall Target Share | Deep Target Share | Red-Zone Target Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 24.4% | 39.5% | 31.3% |
| Adam Thielen | 24.4% | 34.2% | 25.0% |
| Kyle Rudolph | 11.5% | 7.9% | 18.8% |
Overall, it's pretty even here, but Diggs did hold a slight edge in the two higher-leverage categories. That is a plus for him at $7,400.
Because things are so even between these two, it's likely wise to split exposures between them if you're rolling out multiple lineups. Thielen is almost equally likely to have a big day as Diggs, so it makes sense to use a good amount of both. And with Thielen at just $200 more, that's not a hard task at all.
As for Rudolph, there's a chance he could find the end zone twice this week because the offense is good enough to support that. But his usage numbers were poor last year when all three of Diggs, Thielen, and Cook were healthy, and there are a decent number of palatable tight ends on the slate. It might be wise to stick with Diggs and Thielen more often than not when stacking with Cousins.
