5 NFL Red Zone Trends to Monitor for Week 3
Play-Calling Trends
With a two-game sample, we can get a much better read on play-calling trends than we could last week. Not only is the sample-size bigger, but if a team's approach in Week 1 was matchup-based, then we have some additional data to balance it out.
As I already mentioned, the Rams (39) and Saints (29) both rank top-three in red zone snaps this season. Between them in second is the San Francisco 49ers, with 31. The other teams with at least 25 are the Atlanta Falcons (27), Baltimore Ravens (25) and Philadelphia Eagles (25).
Among this group, only the Rams have called more run than pass plays, with a 0.70-to-1 pass-to-run ratio. The Ravens and Eagles have been quite balanced (1.08), the 49ers have leaned slightly towards the pass (1.21), and the Saints have been the most pass-heavy (1.90).
Expanding our view to the entire league, the Detroit Lions have been the most pass-heavy team in the NFL, and it hasn't been remotely close. They have run 17 red zone plays, and 16 of them have been passes. That's a 16.00-to-1 ratio. The only other team with a mark above even 3.20 are the Seattle Seahawks (8.00) , who are largely victims of small sample, ranking 30th with nine snaps run.
The rest of the teams with at least twice as many pass plays as runs have been the Steelers (3.20-to-1), Cardinals (3.00), Green Bay Packers (2.50), New England Patriots (2.40), Kansas City Chiefs (2.20) and Chicago Bears (2.00).
On the other end of the spectrum, the small sample Dallas has shown us is the league's most run-heavy, with a 0.50-to-1 ratio. The Cleveland Browns' eight snaps are tied for the league-low, but five of those have been runs, making them second only to Dallas in how run-heavy they are.
The Eagles (0.67) and Rams (0.70) come in third and fourth, and with their big samples, we can expect them to continue to show up at this end of the list. The Miami Dolphins are tied with the Rams, with 10 runs and 7 passes, and the Buffalo Bills come in next with a 0.83-to-1 ratio.
After that we have four teams all tied at 0.88, making up the last four that have called more run than pass plays. That group includes the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New York Jets, Oakland Raiders and Denver Broncos.
