5 NFL Red Zone Trends to Monitor for Week 4

The Bills With Josh Allen

We've now got a two week sample for what the Buffalo Bills offense looks like with Josh Allen starting, and so far the results have been pretty interesting. Buffalo dropped 20 against a shaky Los Angeles Chargers defense in Week 2, and then came out looking like world-beaters, scoring 27 in a blowout over Minnesota in Week 3.

With 47 points scored in the last two weeks, it looks like there may be more touchdowns to go around in Buffalo than many projected before the season, so it's important to get an early jump on who stands to benefit throughout the remainder of the season.

In Week 1, with Nathan Peterman starting the game, Buffalo ran five snaps in the red zone. LeSean McCoy got the lone running back carry, while Allen, who entered the game in the second half, ran the ball twice, was sacked once, and attempted one pass (to Kelvin Benjamin). Since most of their Week 1 red zone snaps were with Allen in the game, we can include that week in our sample without worrying about a shift in play-calling.

The Bills are up to 22 red zone plays on the year, with 13 runs and 9 passes, giving them a far more run-heavy slant than the league-average. Eight of these rush attempts belong to Josh Allen, though, suggesting that they may not actually be calling runs at quite as high a rate. McCoy was out last week, and Chris Ivory sits behind Allen with three carries, though that's a role that McCoy will likely step into upon returning.

On his nine drop backs, Allen was sacked twice, and has targeted three players -- Kelvin Benjamin three times and Charles Clay and Andre Holmes twice each.

Those rush attempts for Allen don't look like a fluke, either, as the team appears keen on using the 6'5" quarterback to run sneaks. If we combine third- and fourth-and-1 snaps with goal line snaps on the 1-yard line, three of the team's six plays have been runs by Allen.

Nobody is likely to offer truly high touchdown upside in this offense, but Allen could have some sneaky fantasy value if he can contribute scores through the air and on the ground.

McCoy's touchdown upside looks to be about what we thought it was heading into the season, though Allen running sneaks from the 1-yard line does cut into that some.

Holmes doesn't exactly promise to be fantasy-relevant, but both Benjamin and Clay could also have some fringe value if the offense continues to roll. Overall, though, the only player that really stands out through three weeks is Josh Allen.