2018 NFL Power Rankings: Week 4
Teams Ranked 12th to 1st
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Seattle Seahawks | 1.65 | 1-2 | 30.5% | 25 | 9 | 7 |
| 11 | New England Patriots | 1.7 | 1-2 | 67.9% | 21 | 20 | -4 |
| 10 | Carolina Panthers | 2.07 | 2-1 | 47.5% | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| 9 | New Orleans Saints | 2.11 | 2-1 | 52.3% | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Chargers | 3.16 | 1-2 | 45.7% | 5 | 27 | -4 |
| 7 | Washington Redskins | 3.52 | 2-1 | 44.9% | 10 | 8 | +5 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3.63 | 1-1-2001 | 46.4% | 9 | 22 | +2 |
| 5 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 4.57 | 2-1 | 66.6% | 19 | 7 | 0 |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings | 5.65 | 1-1-2001 | 55.9% | 16 | 10 | -2 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 6.1 | 2-1 | 68.6% | 12 | 12 | 0 |
| 2 | Baltimore Ravens | 6.68 | 2-1 | 51.8% | 11 | 1 | +4 |
| 1 | Los Angeles Rams | 10.8 | 3-0 | 92.7% | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Only Buffalo had a bigger spike in nERD than Baltimore, which saw its rating shoot up by 2.2 points after its 27-14 win over Denver.
The Ravens now lead the league in our defensive metrics and have held opponents to just 4.3 yards per play (tied for the league lead). They have also allowed just a 35.0% Success Rate, which is roughly 10 percent better than the league average.
The scary thing is Baltimore's defense would look even scarier if it had even an average turnover rate, rather than a takeaway per drive percentage that ranks 23rd. The good news for the Ravens is that turnover rate tends to regress to the mean, and this was a unit that led the league in turnovers per possession last season.
Baltimore has also gotten surprisingly good play from its offense, as Joe Flacco is tied for 11th in Passing NEP per dropback. The results do seem to be outpacing the process here, as Flacco is averaging a roughly-average 6.3 yards per dropback but only has a 1.6% interception rate (his career marks are 6.0 yards and 2.4% respectively).
Overall, the Ravens have a 44.7% offensive success rate and are averaging 5.0 yards per play but are tied for the 10th-fewest turnovers per drive. Given this, we would probably expect the offense to finish closer to the middle-of-the-pack than the top 10. But considering how strong the defense has played, this would probably be good enough for the Ravens to be contenders.
