5 DraftKings Bargains for Week 4

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Miami Dolphins

DraftKings Price: $5,500

Projected Points: 17.3

Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.14

The Miami Dolphins have been one of the most surprising stories of the 2018 season. They enter tonight's game as one of only three teams (Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams) with a 3-0 record. They are two games up on all three of their division rivals, which includes this week's opponent, the New England Patriots.

Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been a big part of the team's success. Dating back to 2016, the Dolphins have now won 10 of their past 11 games with Tannehill under center.

Tannehill's 9.28 yards per attempt ranks fourth in the league, as does his 121.8 passer rating and his 73.0% completion percentage. His 74 passing attempts this season rank just 30th, but his efficiency has caused him to average the 14th-most DraftKings points per game this year.

His passing will likely be needed more often this week against the Patriots, who enter Sunday's game as seven point favorites. The last time Tannehill played at New England, the Patriots were six-point favorites. The Pats went up 31-10 in that game before Tannehill -- who finished with 387 yards and 2 touchdowns -- twice drove the team down the field to make the final score a more respectable 31-24.

The Pats are giving up the 10th-most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks and rank 23rd against the position by our metrics. The game has a total of 48.0 points, third-most on the Sunday main slate.

We have Tannehill projected for 17.3 points, which would return a value of 3.14 points per $1,000. If the Dolphins get down early -- a real possibility given the spread -- our projected upside of 28.0 points for Tannehill could be closer to reality.