5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 5
Los Angeles Rams' Passing Offense
As if things weren't bad enough in Seattle. Not only will they be playing the rest of the season without Thomas, the first test for their new secondary will be the Los Angeles Rams. This doesn't figure to end well.
Just watching the Seahawks' defense play, it's easy to see how important of a piece Thomas is. He had three picks in the four games he played this season, and his value stems far beyond that. But just how much has his absence meant in the past?
We can actually see this impact by looking at the Seahawks' defense with and without Thomas over the past couple of years. Thomas missed two full games last year and five in 2016, giving us a decent sample of what they look like without their star in the secondary.
The table below compares the Seahawks' defense with Thomas compared to what it did without him, thanks to The Quant Edge's injury tool.
| Seahawks' Defense | Yards Per Pass | Pass Success Rate |
|---|---|---|
| With Thomas in 2017 | 6.88 | 40.4% |
| Without Thomas in 2017 | 7.07 | 45.1% |
| With Thomas in 2016 | 7.59 | 44.4% |
| Without Thomas in 2016 | 7.76 | 43.0% |
In both seasons, opposing passing games averaged more yards per attempt when Thomas was off, and last year, their success rate jumped almost five percentage points. Both those marks should push us toward targeting the Rams here.
But it doesn't stop there for the Seahawks. When Thomas has gone down in the past, the Seahawks have had others like Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, and Michael Bennett to pick up the slack left by Thomas' absence. None of those guys are still with the team.
On top of that, the Seahawks' defense wasn't its usual self even before Thomas got hurt. They enter Week 5 ranked 18th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, numberFire's schedule-adjusted metric to track the efficiency on a team-wide level. We could have targeted the Rams even if Thomas were healthy, but his absence makes it a complete no-brainer.
That previously-mediocre, now-hobbled defense will face a juggernaut on Sunday afternoon. You've all watched the destruction that the Rams have unleashed on their opponents, but the numbers somehow make it even more impressive.
On the season, Jared Goff has added 75.65 Passing NEP as a passer, a metric that deducts for expected points lost on incompletions, interceptions, and sacks. That's more than any other quarterback in the league, and Patrick Mahomes is the only other passer with more than 60 Passing NEP at 70.26. It appears that Goff is making the leap in his age-24 season.
Because Goff has been so efficient, he has put out huge fantasy totals without exceeding 36 pass attempts in any game this year. He had 39.3 points on FanDuel last week and 26.6 in Week 3 while facing two defenses that are likely better than what the Seahawks will be without Thomas. For $8,000 on FanDuel, that's a lot to like.
The other byproduct of Goff's efficiency is that all three of his top pass-catchers can feast without the benefit of a grotesque target total. All three of Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp, and Robert Woods are in play, and all three are getting decent volume this year. The table below shows the percentage of each type of target each player is getting with a "deep" target being any target at least 16 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
| Rams in 2018 | FanDuel Price | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | Red-Zone Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | $7,200 | 25.8% | 45.8% | 20.0% |
| Brandin Cooks | $7,800 | 25.0% | 25.0% | 23.3% |
| Cooper Kupp | $6,700 | 24.2% | 16.7% | 33.3% |
None of those numbers are bad, and none of the receivers is outrageously priced. You truly can't go wrong with these players.
Because Kupp is the cheapest piece and coming off a blow-up spot on an island game, he's likely to carry the heaviest ownership. That doesn't mean he's a bad play, but it does up the allure in Cooks and Woods.
Woods' workload is among the best in the league, especially with all the deep targets that he's getting (a minimum of two in every game). When you can get that for $7,200 and potentially low ownership, you take it and run.
Cooks may wind up being the best play for tournaments, though. He has had 116 or more receiving yards twice already this year, and he has had at least 87 in every game. He just hasn't found the end zone as often as Woods and Kupp. Cooks is, though, getting looks in close, and his yardage upside is through the roof. This may be a good spot to pay up for Cooks in order to be a bit more contrarian within the stack.
