5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 8

Alex Collins Needs Positive Game Script

Alex Collins hasn't been particularly efficient this year, averaging a negative Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP). This hasn't stopped him from scoring five touchdowns and placing just inside the top-24 backs. This week, he and the Baltimore Ravens face off against the Carolina Panthers as two-point road favorites. This is ideal for Collins, who has seen some of his best performances as a favorite.

This makes sense as a Collins is your typical two-down grinder. A notable data point in this split is his increase in the receiving game. He gets a 1.3 reception boost when the Ravens are favored, in addition to his two-carry bump.

At $6,100, this volume makes Collins the best salary-based value (per numberFire's DFS Projections) under $7,000, especially with Marlon Mack's status in doubt after missing Thursday's practice. For cheap running back opportunity, Collins is the play.