5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 8
Kansas City Chiefs' Rushing Offense
As mentioned before, we should expect passing efficiency to go down the second time that divisional teams face each other. This is the second matchup between the Chiefs and the Denver Broncos, which means the game may not hit its lofty 53.5-point total.
At the same time, though, having seen these two teams square off once gives us an idea of what each team will do to try to stop their opponent. And if the Broncos stick with the status quo, that could lead to a ton of Kareem Hunt.
When the Chiefs and Broncos squared off back in Week 4, the Broncos seemed determined to stop Patrick Mahomes from beating them deep down the field. Mahomes threw just 8 of 45 passes (17.8%) at least 16 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, down from a season-long mark of 21.5%. By doing so, they encouraged the Chiefs to pound the rock against them, and they did so with efficiency.
Hunt finished that game with 19 carries, his second-highest mark of the season. He churned out 121 yards rushing and scored a touchdown. He also added 3 receptions for 54 yards, putting Hunt at 25.0 FanDuel points.
That strategy almost paid off for the Broncos, too. They entered the fourth quarter leading, 20-13, and held the lead until there was just 1:39 left in the game. It would make sense for them to deploy a similar approach this weekend.
In general, this is a fruitful strategy, and its one we've seen the Broncos deploy with success for years now, especially when Wade Phillips was their defensive coordinator. Rushing is generally less efficient than passing, so if you encourage teams to move the ball on the ground, your defense may grade out better long-term.
Unfortunately, when you're as bad as the Broncos against the rush, things can get a little messy.
This year, the Broncos have allowed the third-highest Rushing Success Rate to opposing running backs, according to numberFire's Brandon Gdula. The 0.14 expected points they've allowed per rush to opposing backs is actually worse than the 0.03 expected points they've allowed per pass to opposing quarterbacks, and you don't see that very often.
As a result of this -- and the Broncos' style of play -- opposing offenses have just shredded them on the ground. Isaiah Crowell and Todd Gurley hit the 200-yard mark, and Bilal Powell got 99 yards in the same game that Crowell went off. All of those big performances have occurred since the last time these two teams met, meaning the Broncos have not corrected their pourous rush defense.
Because this strategy has been so unproductive, you may wonder if the Broncos would change things up and funnel more resources to stopping the rush. But when the alternative is letting Mahomes rack up deep ball after deep ball, Hunt starts to look like the lesser of two evils.
This is all aligning well with a spike in Hunt's overall usage recently. In the past 4 games, Hunt has averaged 4.5 targets per game, and he had 4 red-zone targets in Week 7 alone. This is a major deviation from the first three games in which he had three targets total. Passing-game usage is necessary for a player to have a massive ceiling in today's NFL, and Hunt has had much more of that recently.
The Chiefs are at home, heavy favorites, and facing a team that wants them to run the football. Combine that with Hunt's recent usage and the overall effectiveness of the Chiefs' offense, and Hunt's a player we should be willing to target in both cash games and tournaments.
