2018 NFL Power Rankings: Week 10
Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd
| Rank | Teams | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Oakland Raiders | -12.11 | 1-7 | 0.0% | 23 | 32 | -2 |
| 31 | Buffalo Bills | -10.5 | 2-7 | 0.1% | 32 | 2 | +1 |
| 30 | Arizona Cardinals | -8.12 | 2-6 | 0.1% | 31 | 6 | +1 |
| 29 | Miami Dolphins | -6.57 | 5-4 | 17.1% | 22 | 27 | -1 |
| 28 | San Francisco 49ers | -5.99 | 2-7 | 0.0% | 27 | 24 | +1 |
| 27 | Detroit Lions | -5.87 | 3-5 | 4.6% | 15 | 31 | -1 |
| 26 | New York Jets | -4.73 | 3-6 | 1.4% | 29 | 5 | -3 |
| 25 | Tennessee Titans | -4.45 | 4-4 | 13.5% | 24 | 21 | +2 |
| 24 | New York Giants | -4.3 | 1-7 | 0.0% | 25 | 19 | +1 |
| 23 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -3.64 | 3-5 | 7.9% | 28 | 7 | 0 |
Their record doesn’t show it and their nERD rating doesn’t even really indicate it either, but San Francisco has done an admirable job after losing starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to injury.
The 49ers came into Week 9 ranked 11th in the NFL in Net Success Rate (+2.4%), and that was even before their shellacking of Oakland on Thursday night (success rate measures the percentage of plays that yield positive Net Expected Points and you can read more about both metrics here).
In their victory over the Raiders, the 49ers had a +12.8% success rate margin, the second-highest mark of the weekend (behind only Minnesota, which was +13.0% against the Lions).
San Francisco has also slightly out-gained its opponents in terms of total yardage (+26) and yards per play (+0.1) and has more first downs than its opposition (+6).
So why are the Niners only 2-7 and just 28th in NERD? As you probably guessed, the main answer is a putrid turnover differential, as their minus-13 turnover margin is second worst in the league (only Tampa Bay , minus-15, has been worse).
Some of this is due to C.J. Beathard and his 4.1% interception rate, but the problems here go beyond a sub-replacement level quarterback struggling. San Francisco’s defense has done well in terms of stopping opponents from moving the ball, ranking above the league average in success rate (42.3%), yards per play (5.5) and first downs per play (30.4%).
The 49ers are second to last in turnovers per play, despite doing things that would normally lead to turnovers. They have allowed the second-highest rate of incomplete passes but also have the second-lowest interception rate. Opponents have also fumbled 1.1 times per game, which is tied for 16th, but San Francisco is just 27th in opponent fumble recoveries per game.
For a team that is 1-5 in one-score games, some better bounces could have made a real difference.
