Week 10 Game Scripts to Target for Daily Fantasy Football
Cincinnati Bengals vs. New Orleans Saints
Over/Under: 54.0
Saints Implied Team Total: 29.75
Bengals Implied Team Total: 24.25
Fresh off giving the Los Angeles Rams their first loss of the season, the New Orleans Saints go to the road to face the Cincinnati Bengals on a quest to prove they are the best team in the league. Unfortunately, Cincinnati is at far less than full strength as A.J. Green has already been ruled out. In addition to being the highest-totaled game on the slate, this game could be exciting because it serves as Dez Bryant's expected debut as a Saint.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
FanDuel Price: $8,800
I sincerely hope you played Alvin Kamara last week. The red zone usage hasn't changed, and it's already a big part of what makes his price palatable given such a strong inside-the-10 role in the league's best offense. But just as important, Kamara had 23 touches to Mark Ingram's 10, while Ingram also lost a fumble and ran tentatively thereafter. This is rightfully Kamara's backfield and we should be considering him game script-proof given his touch total in last week's positive script.
Attached to the fourth-highest team total in a game that could go a bit light on ownership, Kamara sets up as a strong play. After all, Cincinnati has allowed the 12th-most receptions and 4th-most receiving touchdowns to running backs, and they rank as the fifth-worst run defense per numberFire's Net Expected Points model, while New Orleans' offensive line ranks fifth in run blocking per Football Outsiders.
Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
FanDuel Price: $7,800
Good news and bad news. The bad news is FanDuel has raised Tyler Boyd's price in light of A.J. Green's absence. The good news is the Saints allow the most FanDuel points per game to receivers, and Green's potential replacements profile as outside receivers, which should keep Boyd in the productive slot spot. Boyd already has a 22.8% target market share on the year, an elite number for a secondary receiver. Boyd should get a healthy dose of P.J. Williams, who Adam Thielen and Cooper Kupp have roasted in the slot in consecutive weeks. Already with three 20+ point games under his belt this season, Boyd has legitimate week-deciding potential.
Others to Consider
Typically, Andy Dalton ($7,900) would be a lock play in this golden matchup. But his numbers take a serious dip without Green on the field, significantly lowering his floor and ceiling. There are much better plays in his price range.
The prudent approach is to wait and see how the target distribution looks with Green out. John Ross ($5,600) is technically in play as a GPP punt given his price and the fact that the Saints have allowed the second-most 40-plus-yard completions this season. But understand his floor is a goose egg. C.J. Uzomah ($5,400) should have better weeks ahead with Green out, but he too has a low floor and the matchup isn't good.
The best contrarian play on the Bengals' side is still Joe Mixon ($8,000). His ownership should be low given the tough matchup on the ground, but it's reasonable to project him for more targets with Green out. Mixon has two-touchdown upside, and the bye week allowed enough of a cushion that players may forget about his recent two-touchdown performance.
It's the same deal with Drew Brees ($8,400) and Michael Thomas ($8,600) every week. They're elite matchup-proof plays that are viable in both GPPs and cash, but it will take a lot to pay up for them. Brees averages 6.4 fewer fantasy points per game on the road throughout his career and isn't an ideal GPP play when the Saints are projected to control the game. The Bengals, however, are an excellent matchup for Thomas.
I'm not worried about Dez Bryant (not listed on FanDuel) soaking up work from any of the key contributors, but his presence could hurt Benjamin Watson ($5,900) and Tre'Quan Smith's ($5,600) production. Regardless, it's best to to take a wait-and-see approach here as well. If you're looking to be contrarian, Mark Ingram ($6,800) will have low ownership in a good matchup. If the game gets out of hand, Sean Payton may elect to save Kamara similar to the Washington Redskins game earlier this year.
