NFL

5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 10

Jim Sannes  —  @JimSannes Nov 9th, 2018
Tom Brady hasn't shown much of a ceiling in NFL DFS this year, but that could easily change Sunday as he faces the Tennessee Titans. Which other matchups should we look to exploit?

On last week's main slate, pretty much every decision revolved around the two big shootouts. You could start your lineups with a game stack around one of those contests and then just fill in the other slots from there.

This week? Not so much.

There are still some potential shootouts with 6 of 11 games having a total of 50 or higher. But every single one of those has something that gives you pause.

Two of the games involve the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons, which are high-powered offenses, but they're also dome teams that will be forced to play outdoors. Washington gets to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' wretched defense, but the Washington offensive line is held together by duct tape and Flex Seal. Then you've got games including the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Chargers where the total is high simply because one team is expected to do the grand majority of the scoring.

There are no free squares this week from a game-stacking perspective. It's certainly liberating, but it does lead to some tough decisions.

With this being the case, we can put a little bit extra emphasis on individual matchups, searching for plays that stand out even if the entire game itself isn't wholly appealing. That's where numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) can swoop in to help.

NEP is the in-house metric we use to measure the efficiency of both teams and players, tracking the expected points added or subtracted on each play throughout the year. This means NEP can quantify the immense difference between a three-yard completion on 3rd and 2 and a three-yard completion on 3rd and 4, which is key in seeing which offenses truly operate in the most optimal fashion.

We do still need to factor in the game environment when looking at these matchups. If a game is projected to slog along, devoid of all play volume, then we're likely best suited overlooking it. But which matchups stand out on a slate where things feel a bit more wide open than usual? Let's check it out.

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