5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 10

Cleveland Browns' Rushing Offense

After the Cleveland Browns' first game with offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens, the backfield here has been getting plenty of buzz. Both Duke Johnson and Nick Chubb had big days in Week 9, and they had the usage to back it up. With the Falcons next on the schedule, we're going to want to go right back to these guys.

The question is which we should want more.

It certainly helps that both players stand to benefit from Atlanta's defensive deficiencies. Starting with Chubb, the Falcons rank 31st against the rush, according to numberFire's metrics. They've faced more than 16 rush attempts from a single player in a game just once, but that player went off for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground.

Then there's the obvious appeal in their funneling of volume to backs in the passing game, pushing up expectations for Johnson. Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, and James Conner have all had 75 or more receiving yards against the Falcons, and Saquon Barkley had 10 targets. This has been going on for years now and doesn't figure to stop any time soon.

So, both Chubb and Johnson benefit from facing this defense. Which one should we prefer?

The easy answer there would seemingly be Johnson, especially after his huge outing in Week 9. Johnson set season-highs across the board, turning 9 targets into 78 yards and 2 touchdowns. When that overlaps with the first game for a new play-caller, it carries a bit extra weight.

On top of that, Johnson's the guy more likely to still be involved if the Browns fall behind early, which is very much possible here. Not only is the Falcons' offense good enough to excel even outdoors, but cornerback E.J. Gaines is on injured reserve, and stud rookie Denzel Ward is looking to play through a hip injury. Cleveland's pass defense has been stout all year, but it's very much not at full strength. That could lead to points for Atlanta, which would put the game script in Johnson's favor.

There is a potential hangup with this thought process, though. The Browns have been playing from behind the entire time since the Carlos Hyde trade, losing all three games and dropping the past two by at least 15 points. And yet Chubb has still gotten volume.

Chubb has notched at least 18 carries in each game, including a career-high 22 last week. The Browns hung tough with the Chiefs, but that was still a 16-point loss. And yet Chubb managed to get his.

There's also the flip side of game flow. Given the Falcons' defensive woes, there's always a scenario in which the Browns are the team out front. If that happens, then Johnson's likely out of the picture.

This isn't to say that there are no scenarios in which Chubb disappoints. If the Browns' offense just can't function, there's no way a run-only back is going to pay off. But no matter the game script so far, they've still been feeding Chubb.

Chubb's more expensive than Johnson, but he's still decently cheap at $6,700. Based on the positive buzz Johnson has gotten throughout the week, it also seems likely that Johnson will be the more popular option between the two in tournaments. That should likely drive us to getting some Chubb in our lives.

Neither back is safe for cash games because there are scenarios in which both could completely flop. For tournaments, though, we can accept that risk and just look at the upside. The upside for Chubb is 20 carries against a leaky rush defense. For Johnson, it's another nine or so targets against a defense that has troubles stopping guys out of the backfield. There are paths to big days for both players, so while we should likely favor Chubb in tournaments, both players are absolutely in play.