5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Passing Offense
All year long, we've seen the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense come through for fantasy. Even when the turnovers have flowed, so have the points.
That doesn't figure to stop as they welcome the San Francisco 49ers into town.
The 49ers enter Week 12 ranked 23rd against the pass, according to numberFire's metrics. Derek Carr and Josh Rosen are the only players to face them who didn't record multiple touchdown passes, and even Rosen did so in one of their two matchups this year. Jameis Winston has thrown four touchdowns in a game once this year, and Ryan Fitzpatrick did so three times, so the ceiling here seems solid.
The 49ers' 23rd-place ranking takes another hit when you consider the strength of the Bucs' offense this year. They're ranked ninth in Adjusted Passing NEP per play, and an expected points model accounts heavily for all the picks they've thrown. Fitzpatrick lost 8.08 expected points as a passer in Week 11 prior to his benching, but the team's offense as a whole still grades out well.
We're into the Buccaneers here due to the matchup, but they have shown this year they don't even need that to come through.
Of the Buccaneers' 10 games this year, 7 have come against higher-ranked pass defenses than the 49ers'. In those other three games, they've averaged 334.7 passing yards and 3.3 touchdowns per game. With the ambiguity around the team's situation keeping Winston's price down at $7,500 on FanDuel, it seems pretty clear that he's a name we'll want on our tournament rosters.
With the transition back to Winston at quarterback, we have to reset which pass-catchers we want to target. He and Fitzpatrick have different styles, meaning we can't just look at season-long market-share numbers.
The table below looks at who has gotten the most work with Winston at quarterback this year. A "deep" target is any throw that travels at least 16 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
| With Winston at QB | FanDuel Salary | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | Red-Zone Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | $7,900 | 20.9% | 31.6% | 31.8% |
| DeSean Jackson | $6,000 | 14.7% | 31.6% | 13.6% |
| Adam Humphries | $5,600 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 13.6% |
| Chris Godwin | $5,500 | 13.5% | 10.5% | 9.1% |
Clearly, Winston is willing to spread the ball around. That's frustrating for fantasy football because we need to know who's going to get volume. But there are still some good takeaways here.
Mike Evans' overall volume is disappointing, but he has the clear edge when it comes to high-leverage targets. He had 107 yards in one of Winston's two complete games, so the yardage upside can be there. But with his price at $7,900 coming off of a big game, it's possible we're better off saving some money.
With the secondary pieces, injuries are playing a major role. The biggest one is with O.J. Howard.
Bucs TE OJ Howard will be placed on injured reserve with foot and ankle injuries.
— Rick Stroud (@NFLSTROUD) November 20, 2018
Howard didn't command a huge chunk of Winston's targets, but he was productive in the looks that he did get. This opens up extra snaps and targets for Cameron Brate, who has caught 8 of 12 targets for 79 yards and 2 touchdowns from Winston this year. At $4,400, Brate is a solid punting option, though he figures to be mighty popular across the DFS landscape.
The other name to monitor is Chris Godwin. Godwin was questionable for Week 11 after missing practice both Wednesday and Thursday, and the injury seemed to impact his snap rate. He played just 32.4% of the snaps, easily his lowest mark of the season.
As a result, DeSean Jackson's playing time hit a new high. He played 74.6% of the snaps, up from a previous high of 63.8% the week before. That's significant.
The Buccaneers have been rotating at wide receiver all season long, and it has made it hard to predict who will benefit from the team-wide efficiency. But if Godwin's not at full health, decreasing his role in that rotation, then we can start to feel a lot better about Jackson at $6,000.
Yes, Jackson and Winston have struggled to connect this year with Winston completing just 4 of his 12 deep attempts going Jackson's direction. But at least Jackson is getting that deep work while Adam Humphries largely is not. If you're deciding to spend down and don't want to swallow the chalk with Brate, it seems like Jackson may be the best option among the receivers.
