Week 12 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
Over/Under: 47.5
Bengals Implied Team Total: 25.25
Browns Implied Team Total: 22.25
Don't leave just yet. I get it, a divisional matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns doesn't scream fantasy points. But as of now, it's the third-highest total on the slate, and the Bengals defense has become a weekly DFS target. With just a three-point spread, it's also the closest projected game on the slate.
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
FanDuel Price: $7,500
Since getting roasted on the ground by Christian McCaffrey ($8,400) in Week 3, the Bengals have continued to implode against the run and just sent linebacker Preston Brown to the IR. Cincinnati now ranks second-last in run defense per numberFire's Net Expected Points model. The throwers of Gus Edwards' ($5,300) coming out party, the Bengals are an ideal matchup for Nick Chubb who detonated for 176 yards on 20 carries last time out. With such a close spread, game script shouldn't be a huge concern. An absolute workhorse since Carlos Hyde was traded, Chubb is an exciting GPP option.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns
FanDuel Price: $7,500
Did I mention the Bengals are imploding on defense? In fact, no team allows more FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks. That's good news for rookie Baker Mayfield, who has completed 74.2% of his passes with a 5:1 TD:INT ratio since Freddie Kitchens took over as offensive coordinator. With not too many options standing out at quarterback and a reasonably-high total, Baker is a solid cash option with GPP upside.
Others to Consider
There aren't too many other plays that stand out. Cleveland still ranks first in numberFire's Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points model, but were you really playing Andy Dalton ($7,500) before you found that out?
Joe Mixon's price has dropped to $7,300, and he'll probably go overlooked coming off a dud. He's a fine GPP option but not an exciting one like Chubb is. Ultimately, A.J. Green's ($8,000) availability will decide a lot. If he plays, I like Tyler Boyd ($6,800) much more. Green's presence takes up plenty of defensive attention, and Boyd's price has dropped to a more palatable number. If he plays, expect Green to go under-owned. But the injury and matchup with sensational rookie Denzel Ward make him a tough sell at that price.
On the Browns side, David Njoku ($5,100) is too cheap given his every-down role. He carries a low floor, but he's a good bounce-back candidate against a defense that's allowed the fourth-most points to tight ends this season.
It's become impossible to predict when Jarvis Landry ($6,100) will have a good game, but it's worth noting that he's far too cheap given his target share. He'll go underowned in a good matchup. If you're expecting the Bengals to come out and score a lot, then Duke Johnson ($5,600) makes some sense as a GPP punt.
