2018 NFL Power Rankings: Week 13
Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Cincinnati Bengals | -3.23 | 5-6 | 6.1% | 18 | 25 | -4 |
| 21 | Atlanta Falcons | -2.68 | 4-7 | 3.6% | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| 20 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -2.56 | 4-7 | 1.3% | 12 | 29 | +3 |
| 19 | Washington Redskins | -2.33 | 6-5 | 47.5% | 24 | 10 | -2 |
| 18 | Philadelphia Eagles | -1.99 | 5-6 | 21.9% | 19 | 19 | +2 |
| 17 | Dallas Cowboys | -0.79 | 6-5 | 50.3% | 23 | 8 | +2 |
| 16 | Carolina Panthers | -0.24 | 6-5 | 21.9% | 9 | 27 | -1 |
| 15 | Cleveland Browns | 0.71 | 4-6-1 | 4.7% | 27 | 2 | +1 |
| 14 | Green Bay Packers | 0.73 | 4-6-1 | 10.3% | 10 | 21 | -1 |
| 13 | Indianapolis Colts | 1.57 | 6-5 | 42.6% | 6 | 24 | -1 |
The Cleveland Browns' return to respectability has been led by what has been a very strong defense, but they are also illustrative of why it is generally more beneficial to rank highly on offense than defense.
In the next section (spoiler alert), you'll see that the 9-2 Kansas City Chiefs are fourth in the power rankings, coming in 2nd on offense and 26th on defense. This is almost an exact inverse of Cleveland, which is 2nd on defense and 27th on offense.
So why is one team a Super Bowl contender near the top of this list, while the other is in the middle of the pack? The answer is that defenses are a lot more clustered around the league average, while there is more variance in terms of offensive performance.
The standard deviation of Offensive NEP is 70.3 points, while on defense the standard deviation is 40.7.
Put another way: the Atlanta Falcons have surrendered 140.1 points worth of NEP, making them the worst defense in the league. If an offense produced 140.1 points of NEP, however, it would not rank first but sixth.
Denver has the sixth-best NEP on defense (28.1), but if an offense only produced 28.1 NEP, it would rank 23rd.
Conversely, the Jets are 30th in Offensive NEP at -40.5. If a defense held its opponents to -40.5 NEP, it would not only be the best in the league, but would be 2.7 standard deviations better than average.
There is just more opportunity for an offense to differentiate itself from the average than a defense, as offenses tend to have higher highs and lower lows. This is why teams like the Chiefs are eyeing the playoffs, while teams like the Buffalo Bills and Browns are not.
