Fantasy Football: Bold Predictions for Week 13

The Browns Will Snap the Texans' Winning Streak

The Houston Texans have been on one serious hot streak. After starting the season with three straight losses, they've since rattled eight consecutive wins and placed themselves firmly at the top of the AFC South. Heading into their week 13 match, numberFire has them pegged as 5.5-point favorites.

Their wins have stemmed from two main strengths. First from the fact that Deshaun Watson, though not playing to quite the same insane level he played at in 2017, is playing at an elite level. Over their last four games he's averaged an incredible 10.65 adjusted yards per attempt, a 73.91% completion rate and 2.5 touchdowns per game. He has not played like the guy who couldn't fly on an airplane due to a chest injury earlier this season.

Second, the Texans' defensive line has been terrific this season. They have two of the top 15 players in quarterback hits and J.J. Watt is second behind only Aaron Donald in sacks. They're allowing just 5.2 yards per play and have the third-strongest rush defense in the league according to numberFire's metrics.

So why will the Cleveland Browns beat the Texans in their own home? Well, for as well as the Texans defense has played, they haven't been quite as good as the Browns at forcing turnovers. The Browns have forced a turnover on 18.2% of drives, the second-highest rate in the league, despite facing a murderer's row of opposing quarterbacks -- according to Warren Sharp's defensive strength of schedule metrics, the Browns have faced the most difficult schedule for pass defenses to date. And even though Deshaun Watson has been playing at an elite level, the Texans offense has still committed 14 turnovers.

The Browns offense has looked like a totally new unit since Freddie Kitchens took over. They've played an easy string of opposing defenses, but in that time Baker Mayfield has been playing at a similarly elite level to Watson. It has been a complete offensive overhaul, which has turned them one of the least turnover-prone offenses in the league -- committing just two turnovers in the last three weeks.

The Browns and Texans offenses have been playing at elite levels in recent weeks, but this game will be determined by turnovers. The Browns defense has been generating turnovers left and right this year and will help them lock up a road upset over the more turnover-prone Texans.