5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 14

Home Games and High Totals for Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers has gone seven games without throwing three or more touchdowns. He hasn't had a drought this long since 2015.

Things may be looking up for him though, as the Packers have fired head coach Mike McCarthy, and Rodgers has a favorable matchup with the Atlanta Falcons this week. The Green Bay Packers' outing against the Falcons has a 50-point total (stay up to date with line movement throughout the week using numberFire's DFS Heat Map Tool), and the Packers are five-point favorites at home. In home games with 50-point totals or higher, Rodgers has historically excelled.

In these shootouts, Rodgers is only attempting one more pass. He's just wildly more efficient per attempt. He averages an additional 0.4 touchdowns, 26.9 yards, and 3.0 fantasy points. Per numberFire's Daily Fantasy Projections, Rodgers is the second-best quarterback play this week, but his price -- $8,100 -- is outside the top-five passers. He offers elite quarterback points at a discount this week.