Fantasy Football: 3 Things We Learned in Week 15
Dante Pettis Is Here to Stay
Rookie wide receivers don't always get it going in their first season. It can take time to adjust to the NFL.
It didn't look like it was going to happen this year for Dante Pettis, the 2018 second-round draft pick for the San Francisco 49ers. He was banged up at the start of the season, and then the Niners lost Jimmy Garoppolo back in September. When C.J. Beathard also went down in Week 8, it seemed like we may be looking at a lost year for the 49ers' passing game.
But instead, we're witnessing something pretty strange. Nick Mullens has arguably been playing better than Garoppolo was -- really. According to numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, which tracks how many points a quarterback adds to his team's expected points total, Mullens is adding 0.19 NEP to the 49ers' expected points total each time he drops back, while Garoppolo had been adding 0.02 Passing NEP per drop back during his brief time under center this season.
Mullens emergence has helped Pettis, who has been thriving with Mullens under center. When Marquise Goodwin and Pierre Garcon were out of the lineup, Pettis showed us he could dominate when given the opportunity. He has since relegated Goodwin to a backup role as Goodwin played just seven offensive snaps this past week.
Pettis has been a top-six fantasy wide receiver in PPR leagues over the last four weeks, and it hasn't just come from fluky touchdowns. He's averaged over 80 receiving yards per game since San Fran's Week 11 bye, even with phenom George Kittle on the field at the same time. Mullens is somehow supporting two fantasy-relevant assets right now.
While Pettis hasn't seen elite volume over the course of the season, since the team's bye, he has averaged 6.5 targets per game. He's been extremely efficient with those targets, posting a solid 11.7 average depth of target (aDOT) while maintaining a Receiver Air Yard Conversion Rate (RACR) of 95%.
It can be hard to trust rookies in fantasy, but Pettis has shown us that he's worth it. He can continue to be a difference maker in Week 16.
