5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 16
Houston Texans' Passing Offense
Shifting back to games with playoff implications, both the Houston Texans and Philadelphia Eagles need a win this week. The Texans are gunning for a first-round bye, and the Eagles are still in the hunt for one of the final playoff spots.
Given the implications of this game, both sides are in play, and the Eagles can give you some value. But the main attraction here may be the Texans' passing offense.
Before we talk about the matchup, it's important to circle back to our Dallas discussion around home/road splits. The Texans' offensive line is a mess, and poor offensive lines can become even bigger liabilities on the road. But it hasn't tanked the offense this year.
On the road, Deshaun Watson has 11 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and 0.12 Passing NEP per drop back. That Passing NEP per drop back number isn't elite by any means, but it's still above average, allowing the Texans to average 23.6 points per game on the road. Given the matchup, that's enough to get us on this team.
The injuries to the Eagles' defense have clearly played a role over the past couple months. The injuries started to mount back in Week 6 when Sidney Jones initially got hurt, followed by Derek Barnett in Week 7. So let's split the Eagles' defense into two parts, one before the injuries and one since.
| QBs vs. Eagles | TDs | INTs | Passing NEP/P | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 6 Games | 8 | 4 | 0.05 | 44.9% |
| Since | 13 | 6 | 0.21 | 51.5% |
The Eagles have good defensive personnel in general. It just doesn't matter when the injury list is as long as theirs.
If you watched Sunday's game against the Los Angeles Rams, you may be a bit hesitant to attack this defense with an opposing passing game. Jared Goff really struggled there, and that game was in Los Angeles while this one will be in Philly.
It's true that Goff struggled. But the advanced metrics were still there. Goff added 0.08 Passing NEP per drop back -- only slightly below average -- while holding a 61.8% Success Rate, which is a much-better-than-average mark. That was with Goff occasionally missing open receivers. This defense can still be exploited even after their win in that one.
With Watson, the efficiency has been there again this year as he sits 12th in Passing NEP per drop back out of 41 qualified passers. But that didn't matter in the middle part of the year. He was dealing with injuries, and the team kept his volume so low that he had no shot at a ceiling game.
It seems like those concerns should be less damning now. Watson has attempted at least 28 passes in 3 straight games after not hitting that mark a single time from Week 6 to Week 12. He has completed at least 22 passes in each of those games.
Watson's also starting to run a bit again, too. He has averaged 5.7 rush attempts per game over his past six, rushing for at least 26 yards in all but one of those games. He has just two rushing touchdowns on the season, meaning some positive regression in that category could be coming his way.
Watson's salary is $8,000 on FanDuel, a good chunk cheaper than the quarterbacks in the other playoff-heavy game on the slate between the Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints. Given the allure in the high-priced running backs this week, that reduced price tag matters quite a bit. This seems to be a good time to buy back in on one of last year's most electric players.
If you're rolling out Watson, you know you should be stacking him with DeAndre Hopkins.
With Watson's volume being a bit muted earlier, Hopkins did struggle. He had fewer than 60 receiving yards twice between Week 11 and Week 14, something he had done just once the entire year prior to that. But his market shares have remained elite, and Watson's inflating volume will benefit Hopkins most.
Since the team acquired Demaryius Thomas, Hopkins has commanded a whopping 35.0% of the team's overall targets. That's in addition to 57.7% of the team's deep targets and 40.9% of the red-zone targets. Hopkins will be mighty popular following his Week 15 explosion, but that shouldn't be enough to eliminate him from consideration.
If you're looking for a cheaper stacking option, you could consider Thomas, but his viability seems to hinge on the health of Keke Coutee.
Since the Texans acquired Thomas, Coutee has been able to play in just two games. In those two games, Thomas has just six total targets, 12.8% of the team's looks (compared to 23.4% for Coutee). In the games Thomas has played without Coutee, his target share goes up to 19.0% with a decent number of those being downfield targets. If Coutee sits, Thomas is in play at $5,300. If Coutee makes his return, it's likely wisest to just take the path of least resistance and roll with Hopkins.
