Fantasy Football: 3 Things We Learned in Week 16
Todd Gurley Might Be Somewhat Replaceable
One of the biggest news items heading into Week 16 was Todd Gurley's availability. He was banged up leaving the Los Angeles Rams' Week 15 loss and missed practice all week before ultimately getting ruled out just ahead of their Week 16 tilt against the Arizona Cardinals.
Considering there was probably a lot of overlap in the Venn diagrams of teams that drafted Gurley and teams in the fantasy championships, this was a truly major development.
While Gurley rested, C.J. Anderson did one heck of a job filling in. He toted the rock 20 times for an impressive 167 yards and a score, doing his best Gurley impression along the way. Not bad for a guy that spent the last six weeks more or less unemployed. Even more incredibly, Anderson posted a jaw-dropping 80% Rushing Success Rate on those 20 carries, meaning that 80% of his carries added points to the Rams expected points total, per our models. Yes, the Rams were playing one of the worst rushing defenses in the league, but Anderson's performance was truly special.
That's kind of what I'm getting at here. Anderson crushed it as the lead back for the Rams, but we've actually seen every back that's been given an opportunity there behind Gurley succeed. Malcolm Brown had a 60.47% Rushing Success Rate as Gurley's primary backup before he suffered a shoulder injury, and even John Kelly and Justin Davis have above-average 50% rates. By comparison, Gurley has a 49.77% Rushing Success Rate -- on a much larger sample size, of course.
Now, I don't mean to belittle what Gurley has done -- he's put together two bonkers consecutive fantasy seasons at the running back position and has scored 40 touchdowns since Sean McVay took over for Jeff Fisher. I'm just saying that in that particular offense -- and especially with that offensive line -- the lead running back role may be more valuable for fantasy than the specific player filling that role. That means that in future seasons, Gurley's backup(s) should be considered among the most valuable handcuffs in all of fantasy.
And, yes, Gurley himself will obviously still be a top-tier fantasy pick in 2019 -- likely the first overall pick. He's the Rams' lead running back, and that's a fantasy gold mine.
