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5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for the Wild Card Round

Kyle Dvorchak  —  @kyletweetshere Jan 2nd, 2019
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Ertz Is a Risk as a Road Underdog

Zach Ertz has been one of the best receiving tight ends of the year, but a date with the Chicago Bears could bring his season to a halt.

The Philadelphia Eagles are 6.0-point underdogs in Chicago. Ertz has seen a noticeable decline when the Eagles leave Philly as field goal underdogs or more.


Ertz sees 1.2 fewer targets in these games and has produced 2.3 fewer fantasy points on average.

A decrease in volume is especially damaging to Ertz, as that has been the driver of his fantasy output this season. His 155 targets are the most for a tight end, but he's averaged just 0.51 receiving Net Expected Points (NEP) per target. That mark is 25th among tight ends with 30 or more targets.

Eric Ebron is the best tight end to pay up for this week with Ertz costing $7,600.

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