8 NFL FanDuel Value Plays for the Divisional Round
Saturday Running Back: Damien Williams, Kansas City Chiefs
Price: $6,100
In case you need convincing that the matchup between the Chiefs and Colts is likely to be a shootout, here's a quick rundown.
The over/under is set at 57.0 -- meaning oddsmakers expect this game's score to be a full touchdown higher than any other on the slate. The Chiefs finished first in numberFire's Adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP) per play metric, while the Colts' offense wasn't far behind, in 7th. Defensively, our models have the Colts ranked only 20th (including 23rd against the pass) while we have the Chiefs' defense in 26th.
There's going to be real-world scoring and there's going to be fantasy scoring, meaning this is a matchup to target.
Since taking on an expanded role in Week 14, Damien Williams has averaged 10.5 carries and 4.8 targets per game. In three weeks as a starter, that is up to 11.3 carries and 4.7 targets per game.
He's averaging 19.6 FanDuel points per game over those four contests, with 21.5 or more in two of his three starts. Even if this wasn't such a dreamy spot, that kind of production would put him on the radar at this price.
Yes, $6,100 is a little bit expensive for a value running back, but there's just not a lot of value available at the position on Saturday, and with Todd Gurley ($9,200) and Ezekiel Elliott ($8,900) as the obvious high-priced plays at the position, Williams is a major value by comparison.
