Which Quarterback in the 2019 NFL Draft Class Is Statistically Superior?

7. Jarrett Stidham, Auburn

Age: 22 | Games Played: 31 | AY/A: 7.9 | Passing Efficiency Rating: 137.7 | Total QBR: 62.9

Top Statistical Comp: J.P. Losman

Stidham was more efficient than Jones his final year at Auburn, and he had shown more flashes of efficiency in his past. Those are two big positives for him.

But with Stidham also being a year older than Jones while holding five fewer games of experience, he winds up checking in last on this list.

Stidham's numbers this year are largely underwhelming as he ranked sixth out of our seven quarterbacks in both AY/A and passing efficiency rating. He was dead last in Total QBR.

You just have to decide whether or not you want that to override what he did the previous year. Back in 2017, Stidham truly wasn't bad at all. He had an 8.8 AY/A and a 151.0 passing efficiency rating, which would have landed him higher on this list if they had happened this past year, instead.

On top of that, Stidham lit it up with Baylor back in 2015, though it was over a small sample. His 109 pass attempts turned into 12 touchdowns and 2 picks, enough to give him a 13.0 AY/A as a freshman.

So, Stidham has been efficient in the past, and he played in a conference in the SEC that likely bogged down his efficiency numbers this year. Why isn't he higher on this list?

Let's address those questions individually, starting with the first. Once again, it may be helpful to circle back to Lock.

With Lock, we gave him a slight boost because he had shown efficiency in the previous season. In theory, that should mean we'd do the same with Stidham. But in both seasons, Lock was the better passer.

Lock also has 16 more games of experience than Stidham while being the same age. That's why Stidham's here and Lock is closer to the top.

The schedule argument does hold some water. Stidham played five games against top-50 pass defenses, more than Grier and Jones and tied with Murray. He did, though, have fewer games and fewer pass attempts against these teams than Lock, Finley, and Harris.

If that's the argument you're going to make in favor of Stidham, you had better willfully ignore what he did in those games against tougher defenses. Stidham's AY/A was 6.0 against top-50 pass defenses, second-worst in our sample, ahead of only Jones.

Finally, it's worth remembering that although Stidham did have more than 30 games of experience, that's not a ton for a quarterback coming off his age-22 season. First-round picks aged 22 or older have averaged 34.3 games of experience coming out, which is higher than Stidham's mark of 31.

Of the 28 quarterbacks aged 22 or older (excluding Mayfield due to sample size), 17 have logged at least one top-15 season in Total NEP, meaning 11 have not. The ones who didn't ever crack the top 15 had statistical profiles that looked a lot more like Stidham's.

If you want to bank on Stidham's 2017 efficiency levels returning, that's not a bad idea as long as it comes outside the first couple of rounds. Anything before that seems more like wishful thinking, and as with Jones, you're hoping the player becomes an outlier.

In short, Stidham compares poorly to the rest of the class because he doesn't have anything that stands out. He has more experience than Murray, Haskins, and Grier, but their efficiency levels blow him out of the water. For the rest of the class -- the less efficient members -- Stidham's experience lags behind Lock, Jones, and Finley, especially when you consider his age.

Again, this isn't to say that Stidham can't succeed. If scouts watch his tape and deem him worthy of being a first-round pick, then there would likely be a reason they're doing so. But at least based just on the stats, Stidham seems to be better suited as a mid-round selection.